Florida vs. Florida State point spread: Picking Gators vs. Seminoles
The upcoming game between Florida and Florida State on Saturday will look a lot different than many thought just a week ago. Both teams will play with backup quarterbacks after Jordan Travis and Graham Mertz suffered season-ending injuries this past week.
That means Tate Rodemaker is set to lead the Seminoles while Max Brown will quarterback the Gators. Florida State, which still has hope to make the College Football Playoff if it wins out, enters the game as a 6.5-point road favorite according to FanDuel.
How to watch Florida vs. Florida State
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Gainesville, Fla.
Jake Crain, host of the Crain & Company podcast, joined On3’s Andy Staples to break down the matchup. He acknowledged how big the losses of both quarterbacks are, and how playing with backups this late in the season could affect things.
“Jordan was having a great year,” Crain said. “Graham Mertz, to me, was one of the biggest surprises of the college football season in the way he played. You watched his tape at Wisconsin, you can say what you want about the system, this is a different guy. If Florida State wins their next two games, they need to be in the Playoff. I don’t think there should be any discussion. Jordan Travis is a huge piece, obviously the biggest piece on Florida State, but you can’t take away what the other guys have done.
“Tate Rodemaker does have some experience. Max Brown’s gonna throw the ball. You’re gonna see more quick screens in this game than you’ve ever seen in your life. There’s not gonna be a whole lot of, ‘let’s get to the third read.’ It’s either gonna be, ‘first read’s not there, you’re gone’ or ‘I’m gonna make the decision for you. We’re gonna run screens and RPOs on you that make it easy to read.'”
It’s a heartbreaking injury for Travis, the starting quarterback for the past three seasons who helped turn Florida State into a contender. However, the Seminoles still have one of the best receiver duos in the country with Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson.
It also doesn’t hurt that Rodemaker also has some experience, including stepping in for an injured Travis last season against Louisville. He finished that contest 6-of-10 passing for 109 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 35-31 victory.
That, along with the weapons Florida State has in comparison to Florida, could ultimately end up the difference in Crain’s eyes. But while he likes the Seminoles to win outright, he believes the Gators can cover the spread.
“At what point does Tate Rodemaker just have to get the ball up to Johnny Wilson or Keon Coleman or Jaheim Bell?” Crain said. “I think the run game’s gonna be fine with Benson. He’s a good back. I look at Florida and I see Pearsall. I like Eugene Wilson, he’s a good player. I’m not worried about him getting too far down the field. It’s gonna be a lot of quick stuff to Pearsall and Eugene Wilson.
“So if Florida State just gonna keep everything in front? Are they gonna make them march down the field and kick field goals? I just feel like, at the end of the day, Florida State does have more weapons than Florida has. …So I like Florida State in this game. Give me Florida to cover and Florida State to win.”
Staples, however, likes Florida State to cover. He cited a Gators pass defense that ranks ninth in the SEC as one of the reasons why. Florida recently gave up 331 yards through the air to Missouri this past week, and Florida State is even more equipped to do damage through the air.
The Seminoles also still have running back Trey Benson to fall back on if Rodemaker struggles. For those reasons, Staples likes them to win and finish out the regular season undefeated.
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“I’ve watch Florida’s defense all year,” he said. “I just saw them against Luther Burden and Theo Wease. Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson are a supercharged version of that. What we’ve seen from Tate Rodemaker in the limited times we’ve got to see him, he’s looked pretty good. We’ve never seen him with a chance to practice with the ones, so we don’t know what that looks like.
“My guess is Florida State’s gonna look OK. I don’t know that they will be as dynamic as they are with Jordan Travis in there, but I think they will be a pretty good version of themselves and Florida’s defense is just not equipped to stop that. So I’ll take Florida State to cover.”