Florida vs. LSU prediction: Blake Baker game favors Tigers, Gators trying to tap into potential

Going into one of the first weekends with major conference action, all eyes are on Baton Rouge. Florida will take on LSU, with the Gators coming off a shocking upset at the hands of USF last week.

That has dulled the outlook on this game a bit, taking away a ranked-on-ranked matchup as the Gators fell out of the AP Top 25. Many fans and analysts are projecting Florida to bounce back, though.

College football analyst Josh Pate isn’t so sure. He broke down the matchup on Josh Pate’s College Football Show and pointed out there are no sure things.

“There’s a solid portion of the college football public that thinks, ‘Well, Florida got beat last week, so this is where they’ll bounce back,'” Pate said. “How do you know? How do you know they’re not just dead? Did you think Florida State was going to bounce back last year when they got beat by Georgia Tech? Then what happened? They were dead.

“How do you know Florida’s not dead? I don’t think they are, but I don’t know that. You don’t know that. LSU could win this game by 30 Saturday. LSU could also lose the game outright. That’s why we’re breaking it down.”

What is clear is that Florida has far more questions to answer heading into the matchup. And one of LSU’s strengths to date puts it in great position to take this game.

The Tigers have looked worlds better defensively than they did two years ago. And the unit has the potential to be one of the best in the country.

“This is another Blake Baker game, defensive coordinator at LSU,” Pate said. “This is a Blake Baker game. I would say that DJ Lagway and that offense looked pretty pedestrian against USF last week, and logic says I should expect an inspired effort here. But see, here’s what my eyes tell me. The depth, versatility and talent profile, and pressure packages, that this LSU defense is going to throw at me if I’m Florida are a different league, respectfully, than what I saw from USF last week.

“Oh by the way, I’ve got two jet engines in each ear that’s called LSU at night that I have to deal with. And I haven’t dealt with that so far this year. This whole operation’s been wobbly at home, now I’ve got to take it on the road. That ought to be fun. It’s a Blake Baker game.”

That’s not to say it won’t be a game. Pate was as high as just about anyone on Florida in the preseason, picking the Gators to reach the College Football Playoff.

That’s a long shot now, but the idea behind it remains. Florida has a loaded roster.

“Now on the other hand there’s a Florida sort of production vs. potential paradigm that I’m fascinated about in this game,” Pate said. “It sounds a little something like this. So sometimes you expect things about a team. With Florida I’ll tell you what I expected. I expected that DJ Lagway had takeover potential, he could take over a game. I expected their offensive line could do the same. That their ground game could do the same. I looked at this specific matchup in the preseason and said Florida’s defensive line should have a decided advantage against that LSU offensive line.

“And you know what? I’ve seen absolutely nothing so far that says that should be the case. So the production piece is not there. But the potential piece — was I just wrong? Many, many are suggesting yes, I just overhyped Florida. Maybe you’re right. But there is another possibility that, for my sake, better be correct. And the other possibility is, no, the potential is there, it’s just unrealized so far. Unrealized potential.”

So let’s get to Pate’s pick for the game. The college football analyst uses his own predictive model to assist him in making calls.

And his system spit out a slightly lower number for the projected line on the game than the current odds at BetMGM. He explained.

“We’ve got LSU -7.5,” Pate said. “I do think we’ll get as inspired an effort as we can get out of Florida. I do think that. It’s just you couldn’t afford early losses because this is the kind of game you’re not supposed to win. So you’ve got yourself in a position now where you’ve burned up all your equity, burned up all your insurance, your wiggle room. And now you’re trying to win games as more than a touchdown dog on the road in the SEC at night. And you’ve shown no offensive consistency whatsoever. Good luck with that.

“I will take you to cover, anything over a touchdown I will take Florida and the points. But LSU will find a way to win this game, I think.”