Game of the week: 5 things to know about Michigan-Ohio State
Each Friday, we spotlight the best game of the weekend. This week, it’s No. 2 Ohio State (10-1) at No. 5 Michigan (10-1) in a Big Ten showdown with College Football Playoff implications.
Ohio State is known for its prolific offense; the Buckeyes lead the nation in total offense (559.5 yards per game), yards per play (7.98) and points per game (47.2). Michigan’s offense is much better than it was last season’s, but the Wolverines aren’t going to win a big-time shootout with the Buckeyes; winning a mid-level shootout would be a possibility, though. That means the Wolverines’ defense needs to show up; Michigan is 10th nationally in total defense (306.7 ypg), 10th in yards per play defense (4.67) and seventh in scoring defense (16.3).
The contest kicks off at noon ET on Fox; Gus Johnson will handle the play-by-play and Joel Klatt is the analyst.
Here are five things to know about the Michigan State-Ohio State game, plus the predicted final score from the On3 national staff.
1. Ohio State’s passing attack
In eight Big Ten games, QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for 2,799 yards, with 32 TDs and three interceptions; he also has completed 73.4 percent of his passes. He has the best receiver trio in the nation with Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Garrett Wilson; that group has combined for 187 receptions for 2,919 yards (15.6 yards per catch) and 30 TDs this season. The Buckets are both efficient and explosive throwing the ball. Stroud is averaging 10.0 yards per attempt, fourth-highest nationally; he has 346 attempts, and none of the three quarterbacks with a higher average has attempted even 200 passes. Ohio State has had nine pass plays covering at least 50 yards, second-most among Power 5 teams (one behind Miami); Michigan hasn’t allowed any pass plays of that length. And while Michigan hasn’t played anyone with Ohio State’s firepower, the Wolverines’ secondary has been sharp all season. Michigan has given up more than 200 passing yards in a game just three times and no one has thrown for 300 on the Wolverines. Ohio State averages 362.3 passing yards per game and has had nine 300-yard games and four 400-yard games.
2. Michigan’s ground game
The Wolverines opened the season by rushing for 1,051 yards and 15 TDs in the first three games. Their pace has slowed dramatically, but they still average 218.4 yards per game (5.1 yards per carry, 30th nationally), with a Big Ten-leading 29 rushing TDs. Hassan Haskins is the lead back and is a tough, physical runner. Blake Corum had been the explosive guy, but he has missed the past two games and Harbaugh said early this week that he didn’t know if Corum would play. Corum, who was dressed out last week in the Wolverines’ rout of Maryland but wasn’t used, also is a good return man and solid receiver. Haskins has shown he can handle a heavy workload, but Michigan’s chances for a win increase if Corum plays. QB Cade McNamara has improved as a passer as the season has progressed, but Michigan’s passing attack isn’t good enough to win the game if it comes to that. The Wolverines must run effectively. Its strong ground game is the main reason Michigan is 12th in the nation in time of possession, and keeping the ball away from the Buckeyes obviously is going to be important. Ohio State was gouged on the ground by Minnesota and Oregon in the first two games of the season (a combined 472 yards and six TDs), but since a defensive play-caller change for Week 3, the Buckeyes have allowed more than 76 rushing yards just three times, with the high mark being 113 by Nebraska.
3. Michigan’s pass rush
The Wolverines have two elite pass rushers in E Aidan Hutchinson and OLB David Ojabo; they are tied for the Big Ten lead with 10 sacks each. But Ohio State has one of the best pairs of tackles in the nation in Nicholas Petit-Frere and Dawand Jones, who are big reasons (literally in the case of Jones, who is 6 feet 8 and 360 pounds) the Buckeyes have allowed just 13 sacks. The presence of Hutchinson and Ojabo means Michigan generally can get pressure rushing just four, and the more DBs you can utilize in pass coverage against Ohio State, the better. But can Michigan get consistent pressure without blitzing? And when the Wolverines do blitz, can Stroud be productive? That is going to be perhaps the biggest storyline of the game.
4. Big Ten East race and CFP implications
This is for the Big Ten East title, and the winner figures to be a clear favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game next Saturday. The College Football Playoff implications are clear, as well, because a one-loss Big Ten champ will be in the Playoff. Ohio State is seeking its fifth consecutive Big Ten title game appearance and its sixth overall; Michigan never has been. Ohio State owns a 13-game road winning streak and has won 26 consecutive Big Ten games.
5. Recent history
Ohio State has won eight in a row in the series, as well as 15 of the past 16 and 16 of the 19 played this century (last season’s matchup was canceled by COVID). So, yeah, it’s fair to say Ohio State owns Michigan of late. The Buckeyes’ current run is their longest streak in series history; Michigan’s longest streak is nine, from 1901-09. This is the 24th time these teams have met with both ranked in the top 10. Ohio State is 12-9-2 in the previous 23 matchups, including four wins in a row.
On3 predictions
Mike Huguenin: Ohio State 41-27
Ivan Maisel: Ohio State 41-34
Charles Power: Ohio State 38-24
Matt Zenitz: Ohio State 45-24