Game of the week: 5 things to know about Michigan State-Ohio State
Each Friday during the season, we spotlight the best game that weekend. This week, it’s No. 7 Michigan State (9-1) at No. 4 Ohio State (9-1) in a Big Ten showdown.
Ohio State is known for its prolific offense; the Buckeyes lead the nation in total offense (550.0 yards per game), yards per play (8.03) and points per game (46.3). Considering the Spartans have surrendered an astounding 1,597 yards in their past three games (an average of 532.3 yards per game), it’s going to take yeoman work from Michigan State’s offense to make this interesting. Thing is, Michigan State has the potential to do just that. Just ask Michigan’s touted defense how tough it is to stop the Spartans.
The contest kicks off at noon ET on Fox; Gus Johnson will handle the play-by-play and Joel Klatt is the analyst.
Here are five things to know about the Michigan State-Ohio State game, plus the predicted final score from the On3 national staff.
1. Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker III
Walker leads a lot of Heisman lists for a reason: He has been magnificent this season. Everyone knows the back story: He transferred from Wake Forest (man, how good would the 9-1 Demon Deacons be if he still were there?) and made an immediate impact with the Spartans, rumbling for 264 yards and four TDs in his first game, against Northwestern. Walker has followed that up with six more 100-yard outings, including 233 against Rutgers and 197 (and five TDs) against Michigan. Walker is fourth nationally with 227 carries, and he leads the nation in rushing at 147.3 yards per game and is tied for the national lead with 17 rushing TDs. Twelve backs nationally have at least 200 carries, and Walker’s per-carry average of 6.49 is 0.3 better than anyone else’s. Among the 48 players with at least 150 carries, his per-carry average is third; it’s fifth among players with at least 125 attempts. He makes Michigan State go.
2. Ohio State’s passing attack
How good are Ohio State’s receivers? Consider that Jameson Williams would’ve been, at best, the Buckeyes’ No. 3 receiver, so he left Ohio State for Alabama — and is the best receiver in the SEC. Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Garrett Wilson have combined for 163 receptions for 2,548 yards (15.6 yards per catch) and 25 TDs. TE Jeremy Ruckert is talented but underutilized; then again, it’s not as if the Buckeyes are struggling to throw. RB TreVeyon Henderson also can be a pass-catching weapon. QB C.J. Stroud is completing 68.8 percent of his passes and is averaging 337.3 yards per game; he has thrown 30 TD passes and five interceptions. And this is not a dink-and-dunk offense: Stroud is averaging 9.8 yards per attempt, fifth-highest nationally. In short, this is a lethal passing attack that frequently goes for the jugular. Michigan State’s secondary — which allowed 400-plus passing yards to Michigan, Purdue and Western Kentucky and 350-plus to Maryland and Miami — is not going to hold up. The Spartans have to find a way to pressure Stroud; Michigan State does have 32 sacks, second-most in the Big Ten, and eight linemen have at least one. But Ohio State has allowed just 11 sacks. Michigan State’s best defense in this one might be its offense controlling the clock. One problem: The Spartans are last in the Big Ten in time of possession because they tend to score quick themselves.
3. Ohio State’s defense
Let’s focus specifically on the Buckeyes’ rush defense because if Walker is stymied, Michigan State ain’t winning. At first blush, Ohio State’s run-defense stats are impressive. The Buckeyes rank third in the Big Ten and 14th nationally by giving up only 105.9 rushing yards per game; they allow just 3.1 yards per carry, the 11th-best mark nationally. But dig a little deeper and you realize that just two of their opponents are in the top 35 nationally in rush offense and five rank 100th or worse. Still, of those five, only one (Purdue last week) outrushed its season average against Ohio State. The opponents who rank in the top 35 are Minnesota and Oregon, and both had success on the ground (a combined 472 yards and six TDs, and a per-carry average of 5.4). But those also were the first two games of the season, and the Buckeyes’ defensive play-caller chores have changed hands since then. Regardless, this is the one aspect to watch. Michigan’s run defense was highly thought of, as well, and Walker ran wild.
4. Big Ten East race and CFP implications
Ohio State is unbeaten in league play and leads the Big Ten East, with Michigan and Michigan State tied for second, one game back. Michigan State owns the tiebreaker over Michigan; Ohio State, of course, finishes the regular season next week at Michigan in what could end up being a winner-take-all game. Ohio State is No. 4 in the CFP rankings this week, with Michigan State No. 7 (inexplicably one spot behind Michigan). It’s a safe bet that a one-loss Big Ten champ will be in the Playoff. Thus, think of this as a Playoff eliminator as well as a hugely important game in the Big Ten East race. A loss eliminates the Spartans from the division race; Ohio State still could win the East even if it loses.
5. Recent history
Ohio State has won five in a row (outscoring the Spartans 177-44) and 14 of the past 17 against the Spartans. This will be the 21st meeting when both are ranked, and the eighth in the past 10 seasons. Ohio State is 5-2 in the preceding seven; Michigan State won in the 2013 Big Ten Championship Game (when the league had the soon-to-be-thankfully-discarded “Leaders” and “Legends” division monikers) and in 2015, when the Spartans went on to the College Football Playoff. These teams first met in 1912, but Michigan State didn’t compete in the Big Ten until 1953 and this will be just the 50th meeting in series history. Ohio State is 34-15 against the Spartans.
On3 predictions
Mike Huguenin: Ohio State 44-35
Ivan Maisel: Ohio State 48-34
Charles Power: Ohio State 48-31
Matt Zenitz: Ohio State 45-27