Graham Mertz being named Gators starting QB wasn't most important news out of Gainesville this weekend
The Florida Gators officially settled on a quarterback this weekend.
It’s not a surprise that Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz beat out Jack Miller for the starting job. Frankly, it would’ve been a major red flag if the quarterback who head coach Billy Napier said had the best tape of any QB transfer in the portal hadn’t won the job.
On’3 Gators Online reported this weekend that Mertz has had a “strong camp,” and was among the standouts of Florida’s first fall scrimmage. Mertz has been praised for his work ethic, leadership, football IQ and decision-making operating Napier’s offense.
(Graham’s) probably’s worked as hard as any player on our team. Probably as hard as a lot of players that I’ve been around, you know, in terms of the unseen hours, right? Those are what I’m talking about specifically, and the self-discipline, to have a system, a process, a routine, to work, to connect with players, ask very intelligent questions, and is anticipating problems, right,” Billy Napier said in a statement announcing the decision.
“So, Graham’s done a great job and he’s worked from the minute he pulled up in the parking lot until, you know, just a while ago, he’s continued to work to improve, so been very pleased in that regard. The level of professionalism here that I think is respected.”
What all does it mean for Florida’s chances in 2023?
To me, nothing has changed — at least not for the Gators offensively.
While very experienced — he’s started all 32 games for the Badgers the last three seasons — Graham Mertz has never looked like a fringe 5-star quarterback who flashed an elite skill-set at the Army All-American Game five years ago. Of his 38 career touchdown passes, 10 came in two games against Illinois (his first-career start in 2020) and a 1-11 Northwestern last season.
Despite 26 career interceptions, Mertz won the job because Florida’s staff believes he is the most likely quarterback in the room to avoid costly turnovers and operate the offense in-and-out of bad plays.
Perhaps that bears out. But if Florida, who I entered the preseason higher on than most in the national media, is going to surprise anyone this fall it’s not going to be because of Graham Mertz.
Why Austin Armstrong’s unit is the key to UF’s success in 2023
Billy Napier is still Florida’s primary play-caller, but the Gators’ head coach recognizes that Florida’s offense is not a unit with a ton of upside — at least next season. Mertz has limitations, and Gators’ receiving corps is extremely inexperienced. There are reasons for optimism around guys like Eugene Wilson, Aidan Mizell and Andy Jean, but relying on multiple freshmen to be the backbone of the team’s aerial attack isn’t a winning strategy. Florida’s offensive line, which was really good a year ago, has four new starters, too.
No, if Florida is going to exceed expectations — and reminder: the Gators have a ridiculously low preseason win-total of 5.5 and were picked to finish fifth in the SEC East — then UF will lean on the best running back tandem in the SEC and hope its defense makes major renaissance under new coordinator Austin Armstrong.
Montrell Johnson (841 yards, 10 touchdowns) and Trevor Etienne (6.09 yards per carry, six touchdowns) should be awesome, but the latter is the hanging chad of Florida’s season — and the other news that came out of Gainesville on Friday only makes a turnaround even more challenging.
While Mertz was named the team’s starting quarterback, Napier also announced that Florida’s top pass rusher Justus Boone will miss the season with a torn ACL. The Gators did a solid job addressing depth concerns at DL (Memphis’ Cam Jackson and Louisville’s Caleb Banks), linebacker (Ohio State’s Teradja Mitchell) and safety (Michigan’s RJ Moten) via the portal, but they are not flush with experienced pass rushers. Boone has just one-career sack, but he had a strong spring and had emerged as a real presence on a defense looking for an identity change.
Princely Umanmielen is back as the team’s top returning sack-man (4.5), and Napier listed a couple of freshmen and interior linemen as possible replacements for Boone.
That ain’t it.
You can point to Anthony Richardson’s inconsistencies or a lack of game-changing talent at receiver, but the primary reason why Florida went 6-7 a year ago was because it couldn’t stop anybody. The Gators were the worst third-down defense in the SEC. They allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the league and were hammered by explosive plays (second-most in the conference).
There’s buzz around former blue-chip recruits Kamari Wilson and Jason Marshall. Linebacker Derek Wingo is someone projected to make a leap this fall. But there are just as many question marks. Down another pass rusher, can UF consistently get after the quarterback after having the lowest havoc rate in the SEC last season? Are the transfer DL ready to contribute immediately? What sort of shape is 450-pound mountain main Desmond Watson in?
Meanwhile, no matter how much you talk about aggressiveness or attitude, it’s difficult to change a defensive DNA overnight. Austin Armstrong is certainly trying, and now with Boone’s injury, his job got a little harder.
Florida was never going to outscore a bunch of teams in 2023. Not with Graham Mertz or Jack Miller at QB. For the Gators to surprise, they need to get in the mud with teams and find a way to win ugly.
Losing one key piece shouldn’t sink them before they’ve even kicked off against Utah, but a key preseason injury removes a Jenga block from a unit that already starts the year on a less-than-firm foundation.