Greg McElroy breaks down ACC Championship between Virginia, Duke

In what’s now being seen as a pivotal matchup as far as the CFP, Virginia and Duke will play one another in the ACC Championship on Saturday. ESPN’s Greg McElroy has since previewed the game, ahead of being on the call for it this weekend in Charlotte.

McElroy looked ahead at the matchup between the Cavaliers and the Blue Devils earlier this week during ‘Always College Football’. That’s with the two, after Virginia handled Duke in a 34-17 win in Durham just three weeks ago earlier in November, playing for a spot, if not the conference’s entire hopes, in the College Football Playoff.

“A high-stakes rematch. These two teams played just a couple weeks ago,” said McElroy. “Virginia? Needing a win to punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff…They’ve done a great job under Tony Elliott. Duke secured their spot in the title game through a fairly complex tiebreaker scenario…and there’s a lot of speculation that, even if Duke wins this game, the ACC Champion would be left out of the College Football Playoff.”

In doubling up Duke on the scoreboard on the road back on November 15th, Virginia also doubled them up in first downs and total yardage, tripled them up in third down conversions in winning time of possessions, and also had over five times as much rushing yardage. Long story short, it was quite the dominant effort, on both sides of the football, for UVA.

Now, less than a month later, the run game was the biggest part of the breakdown for McElroy. He did note the play of both quarterbacks in Chandler Morris (65.9% completion for 215.5 passing ypg., 14 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) and Darian Mensah (67.5% completion for 287.5 passing ypg., 28 touchdowns, 4 interceptions), but McElroy thinks whichever team can get control of the ground and the clock, with Virginia rushing for 188.7 per game and Duke rushing for 132.1, should have an advantage on Saturday night in Bank of America Stadium.

“Can Duke’s offense find a little balance? They are 12th in the country when it comes to throwing the football. Darian Mensah and company do a great job. They got great wideouts, they have an excellent offensive line when it comes to protection and they can push the ball down the field. However, there is a significant inability to generate a lot on the ground. They’re 97th right now in the FBS with just over 130 yards per game. And this failure to create balance will allow Virginia’s defense to really commit the resources necessary to slowing down Duke’s passing attack,” said McElroy. “So, can they try to create a little balance, and just talk Virginia out of just defending the pass? I think that’d be very, very helpful.”

“How much will Virginia lean on their rushing attack? Now, Virginia’s offense is built on establishing a successful run game – about 190 yards a game on the ground…And Duke’s defense? They are 54th against the run. They give up about 140 a game. Virginia is really good too when it comes to controlling the clock. They possess the ball for over 32 minutes a game. That’s 17th in the country. And, Duke, on the other side, because of how much they throw it? They’re just over 29 minutes,” McElroy continued. “So, controlling the flow of the game will be significant and, if Virginia can run the ball, that will tilt the scales in their favor.”

Unlike the other title games, McElroy did not predict this one, as he’ll be on the call for the ACC Championship on ABC. He’s ready to watch it regardless, though, especially now with what it could end up meaning for the College Football Playoff.

“I will not make a pick in this game, but I look forward to being there alongside Sean McDonough and Molly McGrath in Charlotte on Saturday night,” said McElroy.