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Greg McElroy gives Wisconsin less than 1% chance to win, but picks to cover vs. Ohio State

Grant Grubbs Profile Pictureby: Grant Grubbs10/16/25grant_grubbs_
Ohio State Wisconsin
Oct 28, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; The Wisconsin Badgers line up for a play during the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

According to BetMGM, No. 1 Ohio State is a 25.5-point favorite against Wisconsin on Saturday. While ESPN’s Greg McElroy isn’t holding out hope for the Badgers to pull off the monstrous upset, he expects the game to be tighter than oddsmakers are predicting.

“The chance of an upset in this game is less than 1%. I do think Wisconsin will cover. I know I’m completely insane,” McElroy said. “They’re not going to win the game. I do think, however, they won’t lose by more than 27 points.”

Wisconsin is in a tailspin. Since winning their first two games of the season, the Badgers have lost four consecutive contests. Most recently, Wisconsin suffered a 37-0 blowout loss against Iowa.

In contrast, Ohio State has shown essentially no signs of weakness this season. The Buckeyes are 6-0 and only allowing 6.8 points per game, the least in the country.

If Wisconsin struggled to move the ball against Iowa, it could be in for a long day against Ohio State. Nonetheless, McElroy believes there’s hope for the Badgers.

“What does Wisconsin have to do to make this thing competitive?” McElroy said. “No. 1, they have to stop the run completely. That’s one thing Wisconsin does very, very well, is they’re great against the run. They allow just under 100 yards a game and 3.5 a carry. So, they have to sell out completely against the run. No. 2, they have to have a complete renaissance in the backfield defensively.

“Look, the secondary has been a huge point of concern. Their best players in the back end have regressed. Now, they’re facing an Ohio State passing attack that’s arguably the most dangerous in the country… They have to implement a bend-don’t-break zone scheme that kind of keeps everything in front of them, and force the Buckeyes to make long, methodical drives to potentially bait Ohio State into some impatience or a possible red zone mistake.”

Ohio State and Wisconsin will square off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The game will air live on CBS.

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