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Greg McElroy picks Miami to win, cover vs. Louisville

Untitled design (2)by: Sam Gillenwater10/16/25samdg_33
Louisville HC Jeff Brohm, Miami HC Mario Cristobal
Scott Utterback | Courier Journal | USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images - Sam Navarro | Imagn Images

Louisville (4-1, 1-1) will travel down to Coral Gables for a Friday night matchup in conference play against No. 2 Miami (5-0, 1-0). Now, ahead of kickoff for the biggest game on the schedule tomorrow night, Greg McElroy has made his pick for the game.

On ‘Always College Football’, McElroy picked several of the top games for Week 8. That included this one to start in the Atlantic Coast Conference between the Cardinals and the Hurricanes.

“Louisville at Miami – this line is about 14, 13.5,” said McElroy. “It’s a Friday night clash at Hard Rock Stadium, playing for the Howard Schnellenberger Trophy.”

Among his three keys to the game, McElroy had two that related to one another. The first was if Miami’s defense can continue to cause chaos as they have this season, averaging 2.5 sacks and 6.2 TFLs, against the offensive line for Louisville, which has been part in allowing 2.2 sacks and 6.4 TFLS per game. And, if they can’t, McElroy wondered if the Cardinals’ pass game can get going, with Miller Moss posting 67% completion for 217.6 passing yards per game, and seven touchdowns, but four interceptions, to targets in Chris Bell (100.4 receiving yards per game, 4 TDs) and Caullin Lacy (57.4 receiving yards per game).

“Will Miami’s defensive line wreak havoc against Louisville’s offensive line?” McElroy said. “Look, this front is outrageous, okay – tons of elite talent, high-round NFL Draft picks. Rueben Bain, Akheem Mesidor? Those guys can take over the game. They are the engine of Miami’s defense. They’re deep. This defensive line is stout. They’re athletic. And, they’ll go against a Louisville offensive line that’s been, without question, the team’s Achilles heel, especially when it comes to blocking for the run. Their ground game has been, for the most part, non-existent…They’re not much better in pass protection either. They give up a bunch of sacks. They give up a bunch of tackles for loss. This is a huge issue for Louisville in this game.”

“Can Louisville win on the outside? They’re averaging nearly 300 yards through the air a game, and that’s a testament to how good Jeff Brohm’s system is and how good Miller Moss has been throwing even though he’s under constant pressure,” continued McElroy. “The brightest spot on this Cardinal offense is their quarterback’s accuracy, and their receiver duo of Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy…Those two guys are a really nice one-two punch on the outside, and they’ll put some pressure on Miami’s secondary.”

His third key then referenced Jeff Brohm, who he called “one of the best in all of college football in scheming and making things difficult”. If Louisville is to go on the road and win, McElroy says Brohm will need “to have a great plan for this one” to make up for some of the talent discrepancy between his team and their top-two opponent, namely on the two lines.

“Can Jeff Brohm neutralize the talent gap with his coaching acumen? He’s done this for a while now…He doesn’t have better personnel in this game. The central question here is whether or not Jeff Brohm can mitigate the talent deficit that his team will face in the trenches,” said McElroy. “There’s a massive mismatch up front, on both lines of scrimmage, in favor of Miami. And I think Louisville’s only comparable talent advantage might be at wide receiver, but those players can’t be effective if the quarterback has no time to throw…This entire game boils down to one single dynamic – can Louisville’s coaching staff, and their scheme, manufacture an advantage to offset Miami’s raw, physical dominance on both lines of scrimmage?”

However, McElroy didn’t have it mattering much in the end. He still took The ‘U, to win outright and to cover the two-score spread, tomorrow night over the ‘Cards, while still being aware that Brohm could make this a game in South Beach.

“I’m taking Miami to win. I lay the points,” said McElroy. “After watching Louisville’s offensive line, I think they’re going to get completely overwhelmed. Unless Brohm delivers a masterclass in coaching, this game really shouldn’t be that close. But, guess what? Brohm can, and has delivered that on several occasions in his coaching career.”


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