Greg McElroy picks Ohio State to win, cover vs. Penn State

Penn State vs. Ohio State was previously projected as one of the best games for this season, with everyone believing it would have some implications for the Big Ten Championship and for the College Football Playoff. However, now, that couldn’t be further from the case for the Nittany Lions as they come to play in ‘The Shoe’ on Saturday.

Greg McElroy, on ‘Always College Football’ on Wednesday, made his picks for Week 10’s games, starting with the noon kick of Penn State vs. No. 1 Ohio State in Columbus. That’s as the Buckeyes, the top team in the nation, host the Nittany Lions, who come in with a losing record, due to a winless start to conference play, and an interim head coach.

“Ohio State is, obviously, the number one team in the country, defending national champs and are the consensus title favorites again,” McElroy said. “And they’re hosting a Penn State team that’s now 3-4, 0-4 in the Big Ten and they are in an uncontrolled free fall.”

Breaking down the matchup, McElroy wanted to know if Penn State could manage to do anything on offense this weekend. He had legitimate concerns, though, as the Nittany Lions also have a new starting quarterback in Ethan Grunkemeyer, who posted only 53.6% completion for less than 100 passing yards, at less than an average of 3.5 per attempt, and a pair of interceptions. That should allow the Buckeyes’ defense, the best in the nation in both scoring and total defense under Matt Patrica, to key in on their run game and force Grunkemeyer to try to beat them.

“Can Penn State get anything out of the passing game? Look, the quarterback situation presents a very difficult bind for Andy Kotelnicki. Not sure what they’re going to do,” McElroy said. “They want to naturally remold the offense, kind of grow the passing game beyond where it’s at right now. However, when you look at Grunkemeyer and the yards per attempt against Iowa, it does show you that there’s going to be challenges executing even the most basic concepts, let alone an expanded, deep, and challenging offense to run. So, that’s going to kind of shrink the playbook a bit, and Penn State might have to get very creative with some of the things that they try to attack you with.”

Then, on the other sideline, McElroy wanted to know if Jim Knowles, the Nittany Lions’ defensive coordinator after being the Buckeyes’ the past three seasons, could do anything to slow down what’s also an efficient offense for Ohio State. Again, McElroy had his doubts, but did note that that’ll come down to the pass rush and passing defense for Penn State.

“Can Jim Knowles slow down Ohio State’s offense? Now, the game within the game here is the bit of subplot, but, in the offseason, it was a massive talking point, that Penn State’s defensive coordinator? He left Ohio State for a lateral move and is now facing off against his former team,” McElroy said. “This ‘revenge game narrative’ hasn’t really come to fruition based on the on-field results for Penn State. But, this is a pretty complex defense, it’s a havoc-based scheme, but they haven’t been able to replicate a ridiculous amount of success in what we’ve seen from him in the past…Can he find anything against a very efficient offense for Ohio State?”

That all said, McElroy simply went with No. 1 Ohio State to win and to cover, doing so against what would be a three-score spread currently. He wouldn’t usually play that, but, considering how “the numbers are just mind-blowing in this game in favor of Ohio State,” the Buckeyes were the pick in laying 20-plus points for a game that looks much, much different now for November 1st.

“The pick here is Ohio State,” McElroy said. “I wouldn’t bet this game because this is the Super Bowl for Penn State. But, if you told me right now that you’ve got to play it, I’d lay the points. I’m not picking against Ohio State, especially when they’re going against a team that hasn’t shown me a whole lot over the last few weeks.”

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