Greg McElroy predicts Miami wins, covers against South Florida

Miami and South Florida will meet this weekend in a matchup that could be viewed as determining the best team in the state. Of course, Florida State might have something to say about that too.

In any case, it’s one of the bigger matchups on tap for this weekend. And ESPN analyst Greg McElroy provided a juicy primer for it in his breakdown of the game on the Always College Football podcast.

“A betting trend in this game, South Florida is 5-0 against the spread against AP Top 5 teams all-time as an FBS program,” he pointed out.

That’s not necessarily indicative of any sort of upset potential, though. According to BetMGM lines, Miami opened as a 15.5-point favorite in the contest.

And McElroy’s analysis of the game would further lead you to believe he doesn’t expect all that close a contest, despite what USF has managed to do in racking up back-to-back ranked wins over Boise State and Florida. There’s a fairly simple reason why.

“The talent disparity along both lines of scrimmage is too significant to ignore,” McElroy said. “Miami’s defensive front is poised to dominate a vulnerable USF offensive line. That will disrupt Byrum Brown‘s rhythm, limit the explosive plays.”

In two games so far this season, Brown has gone 39-of-60 passing for 473 yards with one touchdown. He has also run for 109 yards and two scores.

That ability to make plays with his legs when needed has been a huge factor in USF’s success. If Miami can limit him, expect it to be a long day for USF.

“I think Miami wins this game and they win this game comfortably,” McElroy said. “It doesn’t feel good because I’ve liked so much what I’ve seen from USF, I just think Miami matches up better against USF than Florida and Boise State the last two weeks. I think Miami wins it, I think they win it running away. I’d lay the points.”