Greg McElroy reveals his pick, additional bet for LSU at Vanderbilt

No. 10 LSU vs. No. 17 Vanderbilt will kick off in Music City early on the schedule on Saturday in the Southeastern Conference. Greg McElroy has now made his pick for the matchup, as well as an additional prediction made for the game between the Tigers and Commodores.

On ‘Always College Football’ this week, McElroy previewed and picked some of the top games set for Week 8. This Top 20 matchup between LSU and Vandy was among them, with two opposite teams as well as a game between two of the better quarterbacks in the SEC.

“Amazingly, you have one of the best offenses in the country in Vanderbilt against one of the best defenses in the country in LSU,” McElroy said. “Vanderbilt is number one in offensive efficiency still. LSU is top-five in points per game allowed.

“The quarterback matchup is a terrific one. Garrett Nussmeier has, at times, made some mistakes when under duress, and that trend has kind of continued this year. He’s got some picks, missed some throws. He has been also hampered by some injuries, including a lingering abdominal issue, and that has kind of indicated that maybe that’s held him back a bit. All accounts say that he’s been a little bit better the last week or so. Diego Pavia, on the other side, is a true dual-threat. His best asset is ability to break you down with his legs. He’s a guy that could, if the opportunity presented itself, could run for 100-plus this game….However, in his most recent outing against Alabama? Two pivotal turnovers in the red zone to turn that game on its head.”

As for his breakdown, McElroy had two keys apiece for each team in the game. That started with the run game as well as the turnover battle for Vanderbilt, with the Commodores, rushing for 208.7 yards per game, needing to win on the ground and on the clock if they’re to win on the scoreboard as well.

On the other side, McElroy noted LSU’s offense, specifically their offensive line and pass-catchers. The line will have to hold up, against a defense that’s posting, per game, 3.0 sacks and 7.5 TFLs, if Nussmeier is going to be able to target his weapons, with him completing 66.2% of his passes for 235.5 yards per game to six players averaging better than 25.0 receiving yards per game, against that Commodore defense.

“Will LSU’s offensive line be able to handle Vanderbilt’s defensive line?” asked McElroy. “LSU’s offensive line has definitely been one of the biggest question marks on their team this year. Their struggles are represented with their inability to be consistently successful running the football, the amount of pressure that they’ve allowed, how few and far between clean pockets have been. And, that vulnerability kind of aligns with the strength of Vanderbilt’s defense…The Tigers’ inability to establish the run game could create predictable, long-yardage passing situations, and that’s exactly where Vanderbilt’s defense excels at creating pressure.””Will LSU’s talent wide receivers create problems for Vanderbilt’s secondary? LSU’s best, and perhaps most capable group, might be at wide receiver. They are deep at wide out,” McElroy added. “The Commodores have been pretty susceptible through the air. They’ve given up a bunch of passing touchdowns, and they have not been elite in coverage at times throughout the first six games.”

With all that considered, McElroy eventually went with Vanderbilt, the field-goal favorite in this one, to win at home in Nashville. He also, additionally, went with the under in this one, with two defenses playing against offenses that they could have their advantages against.

“I’m taking Vanderbilt. I think Vanderbilt’s offense and the misdirection could force LSU to be a little bit more conservative, and that plays away from their strength. I think Vanderbilt will force a couple mistakes,” McElroy said. “I also think it’s got a chance to be a very low-scoring game. I would hammer the under in this matchup.”

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