Greg McElroy reveals his pick for Michigan State at Indiana

Fresh off a massive victory out West, the Indiana Hoosiers head home for a rivalry game against the Michigan State Spartans. Another edition of The Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon is set to take place in Bloomington. Situations have been flipped, with Indiana a massive favorite and Michigan State looking to pull off the upset.

Unfortunately, ESPN’s Greg McElroy is not giving the Spartans too good a chance. In fact, he believes Indiana winds up covering in this one, a game they are favored by nearly four touchdowns. Per BetMGM, the number currently sits at IU -27.5.

“The chance of an upset in this game? Less than 1%,” McElroy said via Always College Football. “I don’t even think that Michigan State is going to cover in this game. I lean toward Indiana there.”

McElroy then took some time to outline what would need to happen for Michigan State to win. His main point revolved around quarterback Aidan Chiles and his mobility. Indiana loves to create havoc in the backfield, converting a ton of sacks. Chiles needs to produce with his legs when plays begin to break down.

“Aidan Chiles has to be out of his mind and his dual-threat mobility must be on full display,” McElroy said. “This is an Indiana defense that generates a lot of sacks. So, Chiles’ mobility is an absolute necessity.”

Rushing numbers for Chiles are not too great to this point in the season. He has just 186 yards and five touchdowns on 58 carries. Of course, the college game does take away rushing yards from the quarterbacks when sacked, playing a part in the lower number. Either way, Chiles is averaging under four yards per carry.

Being able to convert on red zone opportunities was another thing McElroy mentioned. Turning those into touchdowns, not field goals, is critical to any team attempting to win as an underdog. McElroy says the same is true when flipping the script.

“When Michigan State reaches the red zone, they must score touchdowns,” McElroy said. “Not settle for field goals. And conversely, when Indiana’s offense gets into the short, condensed area, the Spartans must stiffen, and force field goal attempts. Winning red zone efficiency battle is a classic hallmark to major upsets.”

If the game plays out how McElroy expects, Indiana will move to 7-0 for the second consecutive season. An inside track to the Big Ten Championship game is there this go-round, hoping to continue to create history.

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