Initial leans on early lines for Texas-Georgia, LSU-Alabama Oregon-Ohio State and other marquee conference matchups in the 2024 season

With the newly expanded SEC and Big Ten, the 2024 season will feature some dynamic conference matchups we’ve never seen before. 

We’re talking a potential Top 5 showdown between Georgia and Texas. Same for Oregon and Ohio State. Of course, we also still get the classics like LSU vs. Alabama and Michigan and Ohio State. 

FanDuel Sportsbook recently updated more than a dozen early betting lines for some big games in 2024, and in Part 1 of the offseason series, I examined five non-conference Way-Too-Early lookahead lines. In Part II, I breakdown some spicy conference games in the SEC, Big Ten and ACC with early spreads. 

As a reminder: Dynamics can (and will) change among teams between now and the start of the season. There’s spring practice to complete. The next transfer portal window. Summer conditioning and fall camp. 

Still, let’s take a gander at seven marquee conference games and handicap an early lean — Does the line look right? Or is it too high, or too low?

Georgia (-3.5) at Alabama

Early Lean: Kalen DeBoer’s SEC debut is a banger matchup against the potential top-ranked team in the country in 2024. Nick Saban had Kirby Smart’s number, but can DeBoer maintain the Tide as the Bulldogs’ nemesis?

This early line is fascinating on several fronts. When FanDuel first dropped their initial lines, Alabama opened as a 1-point favorite in this game. Now it’s swung 4.5 points in UGA’s direction. That speaks to the confidence around Georgia in 2024 — but also the uncertainty around DeBoer’s program after so much change on the coaching staff and roster.

When is the last time Alabama was more than a field goal underdog? Hell, when was the last time the Tide weren’t favored in Bryant-Denny Stadium? The temptation would be to grab the points, but this line could actually balloon even further between now and late September.

Florida State (-3.5) vs. Clemson

Early Lean: The Seminoles ended Clemson’s seven-game winning streak in the series in an overtime thriller last season. And that game was in Death Valley, plus these two teams will look much differently in 2024, especially FSU. 

Mike Norvell has gone on a portal shopping bonanza once again, bringing in 15 transfers including quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, Georgia pass rusher Marvin Jones Jr. and five players from Alabama. Meanwhile, Dabo Swinney has ignored the portal (zero transfers). Again. 

While Swinney has pumped up the tire pressure on Clemson’s ability to still compete for championships, the Tigers have lingering questions across their entire offense — from quarterback Cade Klubnick’s development, to OL concerns and holes at receiver. If you like Florida State, grab the points now because this line could move by the time the first weekend of October rolls around. Clemson will have already played Georgia, App State and NC State by then.

Michigan (-11.5) at Washington

Early Lean: The rematch of last year’s national championship will have almost no resemblance to the meeting that took place in Houston this past January, as both coaching staffs and rosters look totally different. 

Sherrone Moore is now in charge at Michigan, while Jedd Fisch replaced Kalen DeBoer at Washington. While both teams are in major transition, the turnover in Ann Arbor pales in comparison to the changes in Seattle, as the Huskies must replace 20 of 22 starters off last season’s 14-1 squad. 

Still, this line looks slightly too high with a Michigan team also undergoing so many changes too and tasked with playing on the road with a (likely) inexperienced quarterback.

Oregon (-1.5) vs. Ohio State

Early Lean: Three years ago, the Ducks waltzed into The Horseshoe and beat the Buckeyes in what was then a non-conference series between two Top-12 teams. But Ohio State never made the trip out to Eugene because of the shortened COVID-19 season, so now Ryan Day will take his team to Oregon in a marquee Big Ten showdown. 

Both programs are among the biggest off-season darlings, with impressive transfer portal hauls and Top 5 recruiting classes. Oregon and Ohio State have some of the best preseason odds to win the national championship, too. As is the case with several of these matchups between conference powerhouses, this could be the first of multiple games between Oregon and Ohio State. Although the Buckeyes figure to be the higher-ranked team, Oregon should be favored — perhaps by even more than just 1.5 points.

LSU (-2.5) vs. Alabama

Early Lean: The last time these two rivals met in Baton Rouge, Brian Kelly beat Nick Saban in a wild seesaw affair. Can he take down Kalen DeBoer’s new team in a similar fashion this fall? Both the Tigers and Tide have early preseason win-totals around 9.5, so they’re seen as very similarly right now: Talented, but flawed. 

Quarterback Jalen Milroe had the best game of his career against LSU last season, rushing for four touchdowns with over 400 total yards. What will he look like in DeBoer’s offense, though? Has LSU solved its defensive issues with a brand new staff led by former Missouri DC Blake Baker? Considering the questions around both programs, the Tigers being favored by nearly a field goal at home makes sense.

Georgia (-1.5) at Texas

Early Lean: A riveting matchup featuring two teams that (in all likelihood) will open the season ranked in the Top 3. But where will they stand by mid-October?

The Longhorns will be coming off their Red River Rivalry showdown with Oklahoma, while the Bulldogs will have played a home game against Mississippi State. The game is in Austin, at least for Texas. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if this was the first of multiple matchups between Georgia and Texas, either. I’m slightly surprised the Longhorns are a slight underdog at home, but the line seems fair enough. 

Ohio State (-8.5) vs. Michigan

Early Lean: Even casual college football fans know the stakes in this one: Ryan Day needs to snap Ohio State’s three-game losing streak to Michigan or else the John Cooper comparisons will grow so loud that Day may find his way out of Columbus. Sherrone Moore has as many wins in the series as Day — and he’s coached in The Game once. The rivalry added even more spice this offseason when Moore recently poached longtime Buckeyes tailbacks coach Tony Alford to Michigan’s staff. 

But Ohio State is a big favorite in this game for good reason. This line originally opened at -3.5, and now the Wolverines are creeping on being a double-digit ‘dog. While Ohio State is going all-in on the 2024 season, Michigan has major roster concerns (second-worst returning production among all Power 5 teams).