Joel Klatt picks Illinois to cover, win against Indiana

No. 9 Illinois and No. 19 Indiana are set to clash in a monstrous matchup in Bloomington this weekend that holds massive implications for this season’s College Football Playoff. Indiana has rolled Old Dominion (27-14), Kennesaw State (56-9) and Indiana State (73-0) to open its 2025 campaign, while Illinois owns wins over Western Illinois (52-3), Duke (45-19) and Western Michigan (38-0).

Both programs have absolutely rolled through their first three games this season, but that will change for either the Illini or Hoosiers on Saturday. FOX Sports‘ Joel Klatt gave his take on the game during Thursday’s edition of ‘The Joel Klatt Show’.

“This is a 5.5 point spread, Indiana the favorite. That surprised me by the way,” Klatt said. “This game is a massive game for Playoff implications. The winner of this game sets themselves up, with the schedule that they each have in the Big Ten, to be the third or fourth Playoff team out of the Big Ten. We saw it last year with Indiana. This is what Illinois is trying to do this year and what Illinois is trying to repeat from last year. This is a massive game in that regard.

“The winner of this game is setting themselves up on such a great positive trajectory towards a 10-2 or an 11-1 season. At that point, you’re probably in the College Football Playoff even if you’re not one of the two best teams in the Big Ten and playing for the Big Ten Championship. The enormity of this game cannot be overstated.”

Illinois and Indiana have rolled through first three games this season

It’s been a breezy start to the season for Indiana, fresh off its appearance in the 2024 College Football Playoff. Much like Penn State, the Hoosiers have received criticism for opening the season against some less-than-stellar competition. It’s game against Illinois will mark its first against Power Four competition this season. 

The Hoosiers have won their three games by an average of 44 points per game, heavily impacted by that 73-0 walloping of Indiana State. Curt Cignetti‘s team is averaging 591.7 yards per game on offense (2nd most in Big Ten) and 52 points per game (4th in Big Ten), while holding opponents to just 220.7 yards per game (4th best in Big Ten) and 7.7 points per game (5th best in Big Ten).

Transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been a more than worthy successor to Kurtis Rourke, as he boasts 708 passing yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions through three games. The Hoosiers have gotten it done on the ground as well, as three different running backs boast at least 200 yards on the ground this season (Kaelon Black, Lee Beebe Jr. and Roman Hemby).

Although it made an appearance in the CFP last season, it did not win a game against a ranked team. With a win over No. 9 Illinois on Saturday, Indiana would notch its first ranked victory of the Curt Cignetti era and its first overall since Dec. 5, 2020 (No. 16 Wisconsin). It would be their first ranked win in Bloomington since Nov. 7, 2020 (No. 23 Michigan).

Klatt is rolling with the Fighting Illini this weekend

Meanwhile, Illinois just keeps on rolling. The Fighting Illini, fueled by quarterback Luke Altmyer‘s three total touchdowns, shut out Western Michigan 38-0. Through three games, the Altmyer-led offense is averaging 412 yards and 45 points per game. The senior quarterback has completed 72% of his passes for 709 yards (236 per game) and eight touchdowns. He has yet to throw an interception.

Indiana‘s exciting offense will be meeting a stronghold in Illinois‘ defense, which has held two of its three opponents this season to three or fewer points. The matchup will certainly go a long way in potentially determining a spot in the Big Ten Championship or College Football Playoff.

“I don’t know if the Hoosiers were as good as they were a year ago,” Klatt continued. “I just don’t, and this line… it shocked me because I think Illinois wins the game outright. That means the 5.5 that they’re getting is a no-brainer to me (which makes me a little bit nervous). Illinois wins outright 24-21 even as the dog.”

Kick-off for Saturday’s massive Big Ten matchup is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET. The game can be seen on NBC.

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