Jon Rothstein shares alarming outlook on Kansas, Baylor in changing of the guard in Big 12

There was a stretch in the Big 12 from around 2016 to 2023 where Kansas and Baylor could consistently find themselves among the top spots in the conference’s standings. That hasn’t necessarily been the case the past two years, though, and could continue into a third, as noted by Jon Rothstein at CBS Sports.

Rothstein released a breakdown of the Big 12 on Monday on ‘Inside College Basketball Now’. That included one of his top-point in the conference being the recent downfalls of the Jayhawks and Bears amidst the new, expanded looks of the Big 12 in 2024 and 2025

“We have a changing of the guard in the Big 12 Conference because, for years, and other people took a seat at the table from time to time. But, for a long time, Kansas and Baylor were 1 and 1a in this conference with Bill Self, with Scott Drew,” said Rothstein. “I’m going to go through my Big 12 Preseason Power Rankings here in just a second, but I’ll tell you this. Kansas and Baylor are not picked in the top-five.”

Starting with Rock Chalk, Kansas has been, over the past two years, unlike the program they’ve been under Self, going 44-24 overall, including 21-17 in conference play, with a pair of first-weekend exits from the NCAA Tournament. Now, with a different-looking roster for this season, led by one of the top freshman in the country in Darryn Peterson, Rothstein has some questions as he had the Jayhawks at No. 6 in the Big 12 entering ’25-’26.

“Kansas is coming off the worst two years that it’s ever had under Bill Self, who’s a Hall of Fame coach who has won multiple national championships,” said Rothstein.

“I’ve got Kansas in the six spot. Now, people may, you know, throw their arms up in the air and say, ‘How can Kansas be in the spot?’. Well, let me tell you something. I know Darryn Peterson could be projected to be the top overall pick, right there with AJ Dybantsa, in the 2026 NBA Draft. Just because a player is projected to be highly selected in the next year’s NBA Draft does not mean that the team that he’s playing on is going to reach certain heights…Kansas is going to two All Big-12 caliber players. I feel confident saying that – Darryn Peterson and Flory Bidunga…Can those two players give Bill Self the ancillary support that he needs for Kansas to be vintage Kansas? Right now, I am somebody who always proceeds with precaution. I take a wait-and-see type of approach. Because you’re looking now at a Kansas team that doesn’t have a lot of returning personnel and has a brand new roster. I got to get to Lawrence in the preseason to take this, obviously, in first-hand.”

Then, Baylor is in a similar spot at 44-26 overall, also at 21-17 in league play, over the past two seasons as they too have not advanced out of the opening weekend of March Madness. Their roster turnover is then even more significant for this upcoming season, which is why Rothstein nearly had them outside his top-ten in the conference with the Bears at No. 9 for him in the Big 12 coming into ’25-’26.

“Baylor, okay, has not been to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since it won a national championship in 2021. And Baylor is going to be also in a situation where it is replacing its entire team from a year ago,” said Rothstein. “That’s right. Baylor didn’t just lose Rob Wright. Baylor lost everybody of significance from last season. It is a complete rebuild in Waco.

“At the nine spot, we go to the Baylor Bears, a program that did not return a single player from last year’s team that went to the NCAA Tournament and went to the second round. Rob Wright? Gone. Langston Love? Gone. VJ Edgecombe? Off to the NBA. Norchad Omier? No longer there. So, Scott Drew went to the portal. I think Baylor, and I’ve talked with their staff about this, has a chance to be a good defensive team, maybe an above-average defensive team. But I think Baylor, when it’s all said and done, will have to scratch and claw to make the NCAA Tournament.

With the respective slides by Kansas and Baylor, new teams have emerged to take those top spots in the Big 12. Houston (67-8, 34-4 in Big 12) is the prime example of that, having won three conference titles since their arrival into the league while also playing for a national championship this past spring. Iowa State (54-18, 26-12), Texas Tech (51-20, 26-12), Arizona (51-22, 29-11), and BYU (49-21, 24-14) have also succeeded with the Cougars, Cyclones, Red Raiders, Wildcats, and Cougars all having made a Sweet 16 or Elite Eight in 2024 or 2025. Those five teams also make up the top-five in the power ranking of the conference by Rothstein.

“The league has changed with Houston, Texas Tech, and BYU. These additions, with realignment a couple years ago, have completely reshaped the makeup of the Big 12 Conference. All three of those programs – Houston, Texas Tech, and BYU – went to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament last year. Houston went to the national title game, Texas Tech was inches away from being in the Final Four,” said Rothstein. “Those additions have disrupted things in terms of the Big 12 hierarchy. And now you’re looking at a season where Kansas is going to try to get back to being Kansas and Baylor is just trying, let’s be honest right now, to find a place in the NCAA Tournament.”

With their past success and two of the best coaches in the conference, Kansas and Baylor aren’t just out of contention completely. Still, things have clearly changed for each of them in relation to where they stand right now in this new era of the Big 12.