Josh Pate Best Bets: Week 5 College Football Picks, Predictions

Josh Pate is locking in his picks for this weekend’s college football slate. Week 5’s showdowns feature some of the best games of the entire season, and there’s some money to be made.

On the latest episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, the college football insider focused on a myriad of interesting contests. Some of the games he decided to take a closer look at included Mississippi State–Tennessee, Ole Miss–LSU and Alabama–Georgia.

Check out Pate’s predictions below. While the lines may have shifted a bit since his choices were locked in earlier this week, it’s easy to see where he stands at the moment on each game.

Mississippi State (+9.5) vs. Tennessee

Current line from Bet MGM Sportsbook: Mississippi State (+8.5) vs. Tennessee 

Mississippi State is undefeated, and they already have a huge win in the bank over Arizona State. Still, Tennessee is a different animal. Pate believes the Bulldogs can at least cover against Tennessee, though.

Pate: “We got Mississippi State. We got them early in the week. This number is not available anymore. The price we got it at? Mississippi State +9.5.”

Rice (+14.5) at Navy

Current line from Bet MGM Sportsbook: Rice (+14) vs. Navy

Rice didn’t look great against stiffer competition earlier this season, as they fell by 26 to Houston. Still, Pate thinks they can keep it within two scores against 3-0 Navy in Week 5.

Pate: “We’re betting on food — Rice +14.5. Now, will food allow us to eat.”

Hawaii (+6.5) at Air Force

Current line from Bet MGM Sportsbook: Hawaii (+6.5) at Air Force

Hawaii will travel to Colorado to take on Air Force in Week 5. The Rainbow Warriors have two more wins than the Falcons, but the latter is favored. Pate is of the opinion that Hawaii can cover the six-and-a-half point spread.

Pate: “Hawaii +6.5. We’re betting against multiple service academies this weekend.”

Ole Miss (-1.5) vs. LSU

Current line from Bet MGM Sportsbook: Ole Miss (-1.5) vs. LSU

The second biggest SEC game of the weekend would be the top contest almost any other weekend. Pate thinks Lane Kiffin’s Rebels will defend home field in their showdown against LSU in Week 5.

Whether or not it comes to fruition remains to be seen. He didn’t have much to say outside of his pick, keeping it simple with Ole Miss getting the dub.

UCF (+5.5) at Kansas State

Current line from Bet MGM Sportsbook: UCF (+6) at Kansas State

Scott Frost has UCF humming, and Kansas State hasn’t looked the part of a contender in 2025. Some think the Wildcats can bounce back in Manhattan this weekend, but Pate is riding with the Knights to at least cover the six-point spread.

Pate: “UCF, we love them against Kansas State. We waited for a better number, but we don’t care. They may win the game outright. UCF, +5.5.”

Alabama at Georgia — Over 53.5

Current line from Bet MGM Sportsbook: Alabama at Georgia — O/U 52.5

Pate decided to go with the over instead of picking Alabama-Georgia against the spread. Last season, the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs put up 75 points together. A similar offensive explosion could certainly happen, considering the improved play of quarterbacks Ty Simpson and Gunner Stockton over recent weeks. 

Pate: “The game we’re going to be at—a rare total here: Alabama–Georgia, over 53.5. I like both offensive staffs against both defensive staffs. I think that game is going to be closer to 60 than 50.”

Bowling Green (+7.5) at Ohio

While Pate bet Bowling Green at +8.5, the Falcons may still be worth examining. The team is 2-2 this season, but had an impressive 23-13 win over Liberty in Week 3. Meanwhile, Ohio could overlook Bowling Green after downing Gardner-Webb 52-35 last week.

Pate: “Bowling Green is playing Ohio at Ohio. Right now, that number is 8.5. Bowling Green +8.5. We are adding that as a best bet.”

Eastern Michigan (+3.5) at Central Michigan

Pate really likes Eastern Michigan in this one, and who can blame him? The Eagles picked up momentum last weekend with a 34-31 win over Louisiana. If EMU can replicate that success this weekend, it could cover against in-state rival Central Michigan.

Pate: “We like this all the way down to 3. We’re taking Eastern Michigan +3.5… We have had really good success betting Eastern Michigan in recent history too. I don’t know what it is about them. We’ve been on a roll.”

South Alabama (+12.5) at North Texas

Evidently, Pate believes South Alabama is due for a good game. The Jaguars have lost their last three outings, most recently suffering a 38-20 loss to Coastal Carolina. Perhaps this week will be the start of a turnaround for South Alabama.

Pate: “South Alabama and North Texas is actually going to be a best bet for us. So, we’re gonna take South Alabama +12.5. I believe that’s on the board right now.”

San Jose State (+3) at Stanford

Pate picked up this bet when San Jose State was +3.5. Nonetheless, he’s far from confident in Stanford‘s ability to hold off the Spartans. In fairness, Stanford was far from impressive last week, suffering a 48-20 blowout loss to Virginia.

Pate: “San Jose State is a solid lean. San Jose State is a really — boy, they’re a solid lean… There is a very, very faulty win under Stanford’s resume that I think probably has shrunk that line a little bit too much, or inflated it a little bit too much. So, yeah, give me San Jose State. I think they’re gonna win the game outright.”

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