Josh Pate reveals where Alabama-Wisconsin falls on Upset Alert Meter

Wisconsin walks into Bryant-Denny Stadium as a massive underdog against Alabama. The number sits around three touchdowns, with not many believing Luke Fickell‘s team can pull off an upset. Josh Pate finds himself in a similar boat, not placing the game too high on the Upset Alert Concern Meter.

“I do not look at this as a big-time upset alert game for Alabama,” Pate said via Josh Pate’s College Football Show. “I’m putting a 3.5 on it on the Upset Alert Concern Meter.”

Alabama took care of business a season ago in Madison. The first big-time win of the Kalen DeBoer era, the tone was set early in the schedule. We saw how the Wisconsin performance translated early into the Georgia game, probably the height of the 2024 season from DeBoer.

Circumstances are certainly different this time. Alabama lost its 2025 opener to Florida State, an all-around disaster for the program. Not much went right for the Crimson Tide in any of the three phases, mainly on the line of scrimmage. This one against Wisconsin is where everyone will be looking to see how they respond against another power conference opponent.

No matter the result, an indication likely comes on how Alabama fares the rest of the way through a tough SEC schedule. Whether it’s good or bad, Pate sees this as more of a game where lessons are learned about the home squad than any kind of funny business taking place.

“I think it’s an indicator game for Alabama,” Pate said. “That’s what I think. Because I think the big game is coming up in a couple of weeks against Georgia. This game right here, they could win 38-3 or they could win 23-11 and it may make me feel two totally different ways. It’s the indicators. Even maybe in a win against Wisconsin do we see indications of things to come against a Georgia, against a Missouri, against a Tennessee, against LSU.”

For as rocky as DeBoer’s first season was, he did not suffer a loss at home. You can find a couple of close calls — the aforementioned Georgia game and two weeks later against the South Carolina Gamecocks. Even the Iron Bowl vs. Auburn was not the prettiest performance, winning despite four turnovers.

Beating Wisconsin would put Alabama at 8-0 in Tuscaloosa under DeBoer. The Badgers are hoping to prove Pate wrong but he does not seem too concerned about the possibility of the loss column number changing.