Kansas at Missouri prediction: Defining what will carry Tigers to rivalry win over Jayhawks

For the first time since 2011, The Border War will be played with Kansas vs. Missouri coming in CoMo on Saturday afternoon. So, for the first matchup against one another in almost a decade and a half in a rivalry that goes all the way back to 1891, Josh Pate predicted who would win between the Jayhawks and the Tigers.

Pate made his pick for KU vs. Mizzou during ‘Josh Pate’s College Football Show’ on Tuesday night. That’s with plenty of interest to get to with this rivalry being back for its first edition since Missouri left the Big 12 for the SEC.

“Rivalry back! Kansas-Missouri – beautiful,” Pate stated. “They played this thing from 1913, I think, until like 2011, and then, because college football does stupid stuff sometimes, it ceased. Now it’s back.”

As for breaking down the game, Pate went right to the quarterback play between Jalon Daniels and Beau Pribula, with both being capable dual-threats at quarterback. Through two games of his sixth season, Daniels has completed 80% of his throws for 456 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception, while also rushing for 65 yards at 5.9 per carry.

After taking over fully at quarterback in the opener after the injury to Sam Horn, Pribula posted 82.1% completion for 283 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed for 65 yards and two more scores.

“Two teams with answers at quarterback. That’s kind of how I see this,” Pate said. “Jalon Daniels looked good, looked healthy so far. That’s refreshing. And, Beau Pribula? 23-28, 283 yards, another 65 on the ground. Now, they played Central Arkansas in week one, but that looked good.”

With those two, Pate is focusing on their rushing abilities as part of each of their offseasons. However, that’s where he begins to see a difference based on where Kansas’ defense is coming in on the road as compared to Missouri’s defense matched up with the Jayhawks’ offensive line.

“I think quarterback run ends up being a huge edge here. Maybe not for Kansas, though,” Pate said. “Jalon Daniels will get his, okay. He’s very, very good. He’s very good at designed runs, but he’s very good at improvisation too, so he will first-down you on a broken play about as well as anyone will in the country.

“But, I’ll tell you. That Kansas linebacker room is banged up right now. And, their defensive front is good enough but on third down ,especially, I just think about Beau Pribula’s opportunity that he has with his legs. Kansas? They’ve got to limit explosive runs here, and I think he may have a few of them. And, if Missouri wins, it wouldn’t shock me at all if that’s the difference in this game.

“I wonder, on the other side, how much does Jalon Daniels have to do? Because that offensive line is going on the road. That Kansas offensive line is green. I think Missouri’s defensive line has a decided edge there. Now, if I’m wrong, that fundamentally changes this game, but I don’t think I am, or obviously I wouldn’t say it. And, Missouri’s defense has plenty enough speed – much more speed than Kansas has seen through the early, early portion of this season…Missouri has got a little different caliber of speed and athlete defensively, and so I worry that, you know, that, if Jalon Daniels has to shoulder the load, it’s not quite enough.”

That being the case, Pate went with Missouri as his pick to win the Border War, which would extend their slight lead in the rivalry that currently sits at 57-54-9 all-time. He likes the Tigers by as much as a touchdown over the Jayhawks come this weekend in Columbia.

“The model is sniffing something here that I’m not…The model kind of likes Kansas to cover. I disagree. I don’t like the linebacker injury situation right now, and I don’t like the line of scrimmage mismatch that there may be – KU O-line, Missouri D-line,” Pate said. “So, I’m going to go against the model. Anything up to 7, I’m going to take Missouri to win and I’m going to take Missouri to cover.”