Kentucky vs. Mississippi State odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Wildcats, Bulldogs

The Kentucky Wildcats welcome Mississippi State to Rupp Arena Wednesday night as conference play barrels on, featuring this mid-week matchup between two likely NCAA Tournament teams.

Mississippi State arrives seeking their first win in Lexington since 2009. If they pull of the upset, it would also mark the Bulldogs’ second win ever vs. John Calipari, as they are 1-17 against the Hall of Fame head coach and have yet to beat him in a regular season contest — the only SEC team who’s failed to do so.

For Kentucky, they’re hoping that 17-1 trend continues in a bounce-back opportunity following their overtime loss at Texas A&M on Saturday. As for what to expect from tonight’s battle, take a look at all the relevant info below — TV info, points spreads, over/under, predictions and more.

Odds for Kentucky vs. Mississippi State

The good folks over at FanDuel have Kentucky has the favorite in this one, which is no surprise with a top-10-ranked Wildcat club hosting unranked Mississippi State. However, the Bulldogs are no slouches and are off to another strong start under Chris Jans, so Kentucky opens as just a 6.5-point favorite for this Wednesday evening tip in Rupp Arena.

When it comes to the money line, the ‘Cats are currently -285 to take care of business, while MSU has the juice at +230 to pull off the road upset. Meanwhile, the over/under has been set at 153.5 total points.

Final score predictions for Kentucky vs. Mississippi State

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) also pegs the Wildcats as the home favorites but believes they’ll go ahead and win by a full seven points. It also believes Kentucky has a 73.2% chance to win the game outright, giving MSU a little over one-in-four odds.

The BPI does think pretty highly of the contest overall, assigning it as the third-best game of the evening according to their Matchup Quality metrics. The Cats-Dogs battle earned an 84.3 score, while Creighton vs. UCONN leads the way at No. 1 on Wednesday night.

Another predictive model from our friend Ken Pomeroy predicts the closest margin of anyone, believing the Wildcats to be just five point favorites. His model foresees a 80-75 win for Kentucky with a 68% chance of victory straight up.

Kentucky his his 19th-ranked team and Mississippi State falls in at No. 26. They are the fourth and fifth teams in the SEC.

How to Watch

Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN2, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Lexington, KY

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In the rare Wednesday evening conference game for Kentucky, they really needed the extra break after a 45-minute war vs. the Aggies. Meanwhile, MSU comes off a brutal week as well, having hosted Tennessee and Alabama in a pair of games they split 1-1, beating the Vols before falling to the Tide.