How the NFL Draft proves talent dispersion is real
The NFL Draft annually provides a lens through which we can analyze the backgrounds of college football’s best and most talented players in the immediate aftermath of their collegiate careers. Analysis of the draft can provide insight into macro and micro trends about flow of the sport’s top talent. In looking at the 2024 NFL Draft, one of the larger lessons is the widespread dispersion of draft picks – on the statewide and high school levels.
The 2024 NFL Draft saw players from 39 different home states along with Washington D.C. Eleven states had double-digit players selected. Five international players were drafted from Canada (3), England (1) and Australia (1).
The state of Florida topped all states with 27 drafted players – a total that does not include out of state transfers to IMG Academy. That total is the lowest number for a leading state over the past six drafts. The draft totals for Texas and California two more of “The Big Four” talent producing states were also lower than normal. Georgia, the other member of The Big Four, has trended up in recent years and did not dip in 2024. Traditional per capita hot spots, like Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, remain so.
If 2024 and recent years are any indication, the geographic dispersion of NFL Draft picks is more widespread than how the nation is recruited. While we make an effort to have our On3 recruiting rankings reflective of draft trends, the talent in the draft is more evenly spread geographically than most rankings.
If there’s one clear lesson about the geographic dispersion of NFL Draft picks, it’s that talent isn’t quite as concentrated as recruiting would have you believe and can come from just about anywhere.
Why California is a talent numbers game
On the state level, California serves as a great example of this premise.
The state had its lowest number of draft selections (18) over the past 6 years. Some of that could be attributed to prospects from the 2021 cycle (this draft’s three-and-out class) being affected by not having a senior season of high school football due to COVID cancellations.
Recruiting and high school football fanfare would seem to indicate that the majority of the state’s talent is concentrated at powerhouse high school programs in Southern California. The NFL Draft says otherwise, and emphatically so.
For one, Northern and Central California typically combine to produce draft picks at a rate comparable to Southern California. With that said, a good chunk of the state’s selections do come from SoCal. What’s most surprising though, is where those Southern California draft picks come from.
All 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft picks who played high school football in Southern California attended public schools. Zero played in the Trinity League, SoCal’s most competitive league which is home to the name brand, powerhouse programs that attract droves of college coaches and tons of media attention on a yearly basis. Just two played in Southern Section’s Division 1 – Jermaine Burton and Johnny Wilson at Calabasas, which is not typically in that division. The lone draft pick from Orange County was Patrick McMorris of Santa Ana High.
Most of the high schools of 2024 draft picks from Southern California are off the beaten path – high schools like Cajon (San Bernardino), John Muir (Pasadena), Great Oak (Temecula) and Eisenhower (Rialto). It seems random, because it is.
While 2024 is one of the more extreme examples of this trend in recent years, it’s anything but a blip. Most of top high school programs in Southern California (and nationally for that matter) have a blue-chip draft rate that is simply nowhere near commensurate with the level at which they’re recruited. The four-star draft rate at some top programs is half of that of an average three-star who attends any high school.
Exposure bias, overspecialization and early development (many are held back) can create the appearance of a polished, low risk prospect. In reality, most of the developmental advantages gleaned from attending a powerhouse program are short term and have little effect on ultimate talent ceiling, evaporating within a few years at the college level. Having advantageous resources in high school can expedite development, but doesn’t increase inherent talent. By the time the NFL Draft rolls around, the playing field has evened. This should continue to be the case as players are tending to stay in college longer in college football’s current climate.
The high school teammate dynamic
The widespread talent dispersion in the NFL Draft is also apparent when looking at which high school programs produced the most picks.
Just two programs – Las Vegas (Nev.) Bishop Gorman and Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy had more than two alums drafted. Bishop Gorman had Rome Odunze, Jaden Hicks and Edufuan Ulofoshio (originally a walk-on at Washington) drafted. IMG’s draft picks were J.J. McCarthy, who transferred in for his senior year after Illinois cancelled its fall season, JC Latham and Xavier Thomas (a class of 2018 prospect). 17 more high school programs had pairs of alums drafted, with the majority of the pairings materializing on day 3 of the draft (rounds 4-7).
Though we’re conditioned to believe the existence of high school super teams that boast a bevy of blue-chip prospects, in most cases that idea simply doesn’t materialize in college football and as a result, the NFL Draft.
Talent identification is about the individual
Like most widespread pursuits, there is an inclination is to find ways to make the process of college football recruiting less daunting. While regional trends of talent production remain sticky over time, the NFL Draft proves that talent at the state and high school levels is more widely spread than believed. Taking shortcuts, like defaulting to the same high school programs year in and year out, to search for talent is unlikely to yield positive results. Talent identification is ultimately about the individual first. The NFL Draft shows us that those individuals come from a wide variety of states and high schools.