Oklahoma vs. Michigan prediction: Experience will win out at QB for Sooners over Wolverines

Oklahoma and Michigan will meet in Week 2 with both teams still looking to prove themselves in the 2025 season. In particular, both teams begin the year with new quarterbacks after questionable performances from their offenses a season ago.

The Sooners brought in Washington State transfer John Mateer while the Wolverines added five-star freshman Bryce Underwood. Both bring high expectations right away as they hope to help their respective schools compete to make the College Football Playoff.

College football analyst Josh Pate addressed the matchup between Oklahoma and Michigan in the most recent episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show. He noted the challenges both Mateer and Underwood will face in what might be the biggest game of each of their careers to this point.

“I’m as high on John Mateer as anyone in the country,” Pate said. “I may be higher on him than his parents are. I picked him to win the Heisman. It is foolish to think he’s just gonna sling it all over Michigan. If he does it, wonderful. But I don’t expect that.

“…This is a baptism in the deep end for Bryce Underwood, though. Bryce Underwood has — I don’t wanna use the word transcendent. I don’t wanna use the word generational. He has a ton of talent. But he is a true freshman quarterback starting on the road in Norman, Oklahoma, against Brent Venables. That recipe doesn’t sound good, and for 99% of quarterbacks it wouldn’t be good. Is he a one-percenter? Actually, he may be. So he’s got a shot to just do some stuff that is not supposed to be done.”

Mateer put up a career high 392 yards passing along with four total touchdowns with one interception in his Sooners debut against Illinois State in Week 1. Underwood also looked solid in leading Michigan to a win against New Mexico, throwing for 251 yards and one touchdown to no interceptions.

But as Pate mentioned, it will be a whole different world this week as both Mateer and Underwood will see a step up in competition. In particular, he sees the road environment and Brent Venables-led defense being tough for Underwood to overcome.

“I think quarterback mistakes are going to go a long way in deciding this one,” he said. “It could honestly be the padlock stat. There is a chance that neither run game finds a ton of consistency. Michigan was under three yards per carry last week absent two explosive runs. Now, those explosive runs count. If you got them against New Mexico, maybe you can get them against Oklahoma. But if they limit the explosive run, Michigan didn’t light the world on first in yards per carry on the ground last week, nor did Oklahoma.

“Both of them are facing way better run defenses this week than they did last week, which means what if both ground games get stifled? We got one guy in John Mateer facing a way higher caliber of competition than he’s ever faced. Biggest game of his life. Then we’ve got Bryce, obviously a true freshman on the road against Brent Venables. Biggest game of his career by 10 miles. That is a situation ripe for quarterback mistakes to decide a game.”

In the end, Pate sees that being the difference in the outcome of this one. He still expects it to be a hard-fought game that could be decided at the very end, but gives the edge to the Sooners.

“I think it’s going to be a very, very tight game. In that kind of game, I lean Oklahoma,” he said. “The more I look at it though and how much newness and kind of uncertainty there is, I think it’s gonna be tough to peg this one. So I’m going Oklahoma to win, but anything over three, I am taking Michigan in the points.”