How the NFL Draft informs On3's offensive line rankings

charles power hsby:Charles Power•05/25/22•

CharlesPower

No position in football requires more development from high school to college (and ultimately the NFL) than the offensive line. Additionally, no other position sees as many high draft picks come from off the radar, with the possible exception of tight end. In most cases, physical development and technical skill acquisition comes later for offensive linemen.

The recruiting industry has traditionally struggled to peg top offensive line picks as recruits relative to most, if not all other positions. This is in part due to the highly developmental nature of the position. Future top draft picks are rarely finished products at the high school level. In the same vein, top college programs often opt for more developed high school linemen who may not have the ultimate ceiling of those who require more development. The higher floor, more developed prospects require less projection with perhaps less variance, despite not offering the same upside.

A long-term outlook is needed to most accurately project high school offensive line prospects as future top draft picks. Given the nature of the position, critical factors like frame, length, movement skills, functional strength and athletic profile take precedence over position-specific skill as a high schooler.

At On3, we annually study the backgrounds of top offensive line picks in order to keep our critical factors and methodology up to date. This is the case with the 2023 cycle – one that we find to be strong along the offensive line. Eight offensive line prospects currently reside in the top 40 of the On300 – five offensive tackles and three interior offensive linemen. The depth continues as as you move down the rankings.

All of our evaluations start with video analysis, but the rankings, particularly on the offensive line, are heavily informed by this analysis.

In order to judge how the 2023 offensive line group stacks up, lets first establish some baseline critical factors based on what recent top draft picks looked like in high school.

Baseline critical factors for top offensive tackle draft picks

The sample: The last 40 offensive tackles drafted rounds 1-3 (2019-2022)

Average size: 6-foot-5.5, 289 pounds, 34.1-inch arm, 10-inch hand

Height thresholds: 2/40 under 6-foot-4 (Ikem Ekwonu, Rashawn Slater), 10/40 over 6-foot-6

Weight thresholds: 6/40 over 320 pounds, 14/40 over 300 pounds, 6/40 under 260 pounds (4 who signed with FBS programs)

Frame thresholds:

  • 36/40 have a 33+ inch arm
  • 23/40 have a 34+ inch arm
  • 29/40 have a 10+ inch hand

Average athletic testing (out of 16): 4.83 second shuttle (3/16 over 5.0 seconds)

Other positions: 21/40 saw time on defense. 12 of the last 16 first-rounders saw time on offense and defense in their prep careers.

Multi-sport:

  • At least 26/40 played multiple sports.
  • Of the 13 who threw the shot put as upperclassmen, the average personal best was 51.25 feet.
  • 16 played basketball, 5 wrestled

Additional notes:

Baseline critical factors for top interior offensive line draft picks

The sample: The last 40 interior offensive linemen drafted rounds 1-3 (2019-2022)

Average size: 6-foot-4.1, 289 pounds, 33.2-inch arm, 10.1-inch hand

Height thresholds: 36/40 over 6-foot-3, 4/40 over 6-foot-5

Weight thresholds: 18/40 over 300 pounds, 0/40 over 330 pounds, 6/40 under 260 pounds

Frame thresholds:

  • 28/40 have a 33+ inch arm
  • 3/40 have a sub 32-inch arm
  • 27/40 have a 10+ inch hand
  • 0/40 have a sub-9.5-inch hand

Average athletic testing (out of 18): 4.88 second shuttle (3/18 over 5.0 seconds)

Other positions: 22/40 played both ways, with most playing offensive and defensive line.

Multi-sport:

  • At least 30/40 played multiple sports.
  • Of the 17 who threw the shot put as upperclassmen, the average personal best was 50.2 feet.
  • 15 played basketball, 5 played baseball, 4 wrestled

Additional notes: 16/40 were ranked as interior offensive linemen as recruits. 15/40 were ranked as offensive tackles.

2023 5-stars hit the mark

It shouldn’t come as a surprise to learn that On3’s top-rated offensive linemen have many similarities with the top draft picks when it comes to frame, length and athleticism in addition to video we view as dominant. Three offensive linemen currently rank as five-star prospects in the On300.

OT Charles Jagusah (No. 7) – Verified length with an arm over 34 inches and an 11-inch hand. One of the top heavyweight wrestlers in the Midwest, turning in 41-0 undefeated season as a junior. Plays offensive and defensive line and received some initial offers as a defensive line prospect.

IOL Jven Williams (No. 11), Penn State commit – Over 6-foot-4, 290 pounds with an arm over 34 inches as a rising junior. Has the length to play offensive tackle long-term if needed. Also plays defensive line for his high school. One of the top throwers in track in the Northeast, with a personal best of 61-10 feet in the shot put and 189-1 feet in the discus. Won a state title as a sophomore. Younger for the class, turning 17 years-old in August of his senior season. After the publishing of this story, Williams set the Pennsylvania 2A state record in the shot put with a 66-7.75 throw in the state finals. He also captured a state title in the discus.

OT Francis Mauigoa (No. 14) – Verified 6-foot-5, 329 pounds with a 81-inch wing-span and 10 1/8-inch hand at the UC Report’s Elite Underclassman Camp in Orlando. Extremely light-footed, particularly for his size, posting a 4.5-second short shuttle mark – the best we’ve seen from any blue-chip offensive linemen this year. Was initially viewed as a defensive line prospect prior to converting to offensive line full-time after transferring to IMG Academy. Also young for the class, turning 17 years-old in June. The most recently minted five-star prospect in the On300.

Rounding out the top 40

OT Zalance Heard (No. 16) – Measured over 6-foot-5, 295 pounds as a rising junior (likely taller now). Elite length for the position with a verified arm length over 36 inches. First year playing offensive line as a junior, previously playing defensive line.

IOL Markis Deal (No. 28) – Checks in at 6-foot-4, 285 pounds, with close to an 80-inch wing-span and 10-inch hand. A standout in track with a personal best of 56-10 feet in the shot put. Also plays basketball. Two-way player who plays defensive line at a high level. Younger for the class, just turning 17 years-old. Prefers to be recruited as a defensive lineman at this time, though we view his long-term upside to be significantly higher as an offensive lineman.

OT Kadyn Proctor (No. 31) – Measured 6-foot-6, 318 pounds with an 80-inch wing-span as a rising junior. Has posted a personal best throw of 48-10.5 feet in the shot put. Also plays basketball.

IOL Alex Birchmeier (No. 33), Penn State commit – Has measured at 6-foot-5, 275 pounds with a 33-inch arm and hand over 10 inches. A two-time state champion wrestler. Posted a 4.69 second short shuttle as a rising sophomore.

OT Monroe Freeling (No. 38) – Measured at around 6-foot-7, 284 pounds with wing-span over 7-feet and an 11-inch hand at Under Armour’s Atlanta camp in February. Posted the fastest 10-yard split of all offensive linemen at the camp. Also plays defensive line for his high school. A bouncy athlete who throws down powerful dunks on the hardwood.

Positional averages in the On300

Positive indicators within the 2023 offensive line group don’t dry up once we get outside the top 40.

The 25 offensive tackles inside the On300 average 6-foot-5.4, 295.3 pounds. 18 of the 25 are under 300 pounds. The group looks to be quite long, with an average wing-span of 82.3 inches (6-foot-10.3). The average hand-size is 10 inches. The average shuttle time among the group is 4.80 seconds. At least one-third also play defensive line and at least half are multi-sport athletes.

The depth among the interior offensive line may be even more impressive. The 25 interior offensive linemen inside the On300 average 6-foot-4.1, 291 pounds with a 79.5 wing-span (6-foot-7.5) and a 10-inch hand. The average shuttle time among the group is 4.75 seconds. The group excels in track and field, with the average personal best in the shot put coming out to 50 feet (out of 15). Nine of the fifteen who throw the shot put have a personal best of over 50 feet. Additionally, at least 19 of the 25 are multi-sport athletes.

Closing perspective

The fact high school rankings are formulated in real time presents inherent challenges. For one, prospects often drastically change over the two to three years of a recruiting cycle’s life-span. Unlike the NFL Draft, college programs and recruiting media entities don’t have exhaustive measurements and data on every prospect. The source material changes as colleges make their evaluations and as we update the rankings.

Acknowledging that reality serves to point out the fluid nature of rankings and high school evaluations. While these indicators and critical factors serve as a lodestar, there are scenarios where being overly dogmatic with the process can lead to misses. The uneven information relative to each prospect requires projection.

While working at 247Sports during the 2019 recruiting cycle, I was an advocate for offensive tackle (and future top ten pick) Charles Cross as a highly-rated prospect. Cross did not have verified measurements or athletic data available early on. It was strictly a video evaluation. We invited him to the All-American Bowl, where he had plus measurements and was the best offensive linemen throughout the week. Had we been robotic and gone strictly off of available data and indicators, he may not have been invited and had the opportunity to impress on a national stage and ultimately finish as a five-star.

The recruiting industry objectively does a very good job of forecasting future top NFL Draft picks. We have more information and video sources available than ever before. Valuing and using those resources in a methodical way can help in navigating through an unbalanced process, particularly at a position that requires so much long-term projection.