Paul Finebaum: Not that many CFP teams have realistic chance to win national championship

As the expanded College Football Playoff opens up for the second season this weekend, Paul Finebaum believes the field may be larger, but the list of true national title contenders remains relatively small. 

Speaking Monday on McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning, the ESPN college football analyst stated only a handful of teams have shown enough consistency and roster balance to realistically win it all: “Not that many,” Finebaum said, when asked how many CFP teams he trusts as championship-caliber.

“I mean, I really think you start with the top two. I don’t think there’s any question about Indiana or Ohio State. You can add, I think, Georgia to that mix.”

Finebaum admitted the rest of the field becomes much harder to sort out. Oregon, despite earning a top-five seed, didn’t inspire much confidence from the longtime SEC voice. “I’m struggling to put Oregon in there,” he said. “I think this is a real challenge for me.”

From there, Finebaum turned his attention to the SEC, where he saw potential but also volatility. Georgia, in his view, remains the league’s most reliable option. After that, Texas A&M stands out as a team with a legitimate path to a title game appearance.

“I think Texas A&M has a path,” Finebaum explained. “They’re built pretty well.” The Aggies host Miami in the first round and would likely need to survive multiple physical matchups. But Finebaum believes their roster construction gives them a fighting chance.

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Alabama, meanwhile, remains the great unknown. Despite being seeded ninth and coming off a lopsided SEC Championship loss to Georgia, Finebaum hasn’t ruled out a Tide run. He did make it clear it comes with significant risk though.

“I’m optimistic that Alabama could make a run,” he said. “Now, I’m as easily optimistic that I’ll be talking to you next Monday about the end of their season.”

Additionally, Ole Miss also drew skepticism. Particularly with a potential rematch looming against Georgia later in the bracket. “Ole Miss is a little bit of a misnomer,” Finebaum elaborated. “They’ll still have to play Georgia, and I really would like Georgia in that rematch.”

All told, the first round of the CFP begins this weekend. Matchups include No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma, No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 11 Tulane facing No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 12 James Madison traveling to play No. 5 Oregon.

The playoff now features more teams than ever. Still, Finebaum’s stance is clear. He believes quantity hasn’t changed the reality at the top. We’ll see who stands tall at the end, and if the SEC Network analyst is shocked at the end of it all.