Pete Thamel, Rece Davis predict which Group of 5 team will make College Football Playoff

With the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams this season, ESPN’s Pete Thamel and Rece Davis offered their opinions on which Group of 5 team would make the field.

Although Cincinnati was the only school from a Group of 5 conference to make the four-team format in the 10 years it existed, that is guaranteed to change in 2024. The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids this season, leaving room for at least one school from a traditionally smaller league.

Thamel landed on Boise State, which won the Mountain West title in 2023. He cited the Broncos returning four offensive linemen with starting experience as well as running back Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for 1,347 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Boise State does lose its starting quarterback, but adds former five-star Malachi Nelson as a transfer out of USC. That provides hope the Broncos can carry over their momentum after going 4-1 in their final five games to close last year.

“They bring back the core of their offensive line,” Thamel said on the College GameDay podcast. “Ashton Jeanty is a top three running back in college football. The NFL views him that way. I think he made a really interesting decision to return to Boise. He could have gone somewhere and made three-quarters of a million dollars. I think he knew he was a dominant back. He knew he’d get the carries and he can showcase himself there and show improvement. It’s just hard to roll into a big SEC campus and be a bell cow guy right away and you’re running against really good teams. …So I really feel like from a business standpoint, production, wear-and-tear and winning, the NFL values winning, he made a great decision.

Boise State saw its turnaround occur when it fired Andy Avalos and Spencer Danielson took over as interim coach late last season. Danielson did so well that he was hired as the full-time head coach in the offseason and has brought in a new staff with him.

Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, a former NFL and college head coach, is one of the names that has Thamel most excited.

“I have a lot of faith in Dirk Koetter, who was a brilliant hire at OC,” the ESPN analyst said. “He’s been an NFL head coach, he’s been the Boise head coach, he’s been an Arizona State head coach. He’s an elite developer of quarterbacks. Whether that’s Malachi Nelson or not, we’ll find out here in the spring. …I like Boise a lot. I feel like the pieces are there and the schedule is there to go and carry the momentum they had in the last season after they fired Andy Avalos and Spencer Danielson gave that place a real true adrenaline shot.”

As for Davis, he listed a number of Group of 5 team that he believes could compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff. He began with Liberty, which went undefeated in 2023 before losing in the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon.

Davis also mentioned Texas State and South Florida before ultimately landing on another AAC school in Memphis. The Tigers are coming off of a 10-win season in 2023 and returning their starting quarterback and top receiver while also adding a number of talented options in the transfer portal.

“They’ve got Seth Henigan coming back at quarterback,” he said. “They’ve got Roc Taylor, who had over 1,000 yards receiving, dangerous guy. Perhaps Ryan Silverfield learned from Mike Norvell, the former coach at Memphis, because among the 29 guys he took out of the portal to supplement his roster, he took Tennessee’s leading tackler in Elijah Herring and South Carolina’s leading rusher in Mario Anderson.

“I’m gonna say Memphis, coming off of a 10-win season, gets that last spot. They are at Florida State on Sept. 14. They have to go to USF, which I think could be in there. They have to go to UTSA, who also could be in this mix. So they’ve got a little bit of a dicey road schedule. But I think with the experience they have and with all the FedEx NIL money coming in that we’re in good shape.”

Ultimately it should be a fascinating college football season in many ways and seeing which Group of 5 team makes the playoff is just one thing to look forward to. We’re officially less than a week away from kickoff on Aug. 24.