Phil Steele 16 most improved teams in college football

Veteran analyst Phil Steele’s 16 most improved teams list of the college football season has been published. He cites his success in previous years using his model; let’s look at his picks for most improved in the nation.

Most Improved Teams

No. 16 – Mississippi State: Great excitement surrounds the quarterback situation as they feel they have a real competition between great players. Will Rogers appears to be the one they’ll go with, but with either starter, Mike Leach expects to win at least two more games this year and avoid another last-place finish.

No. 15 – Michigan: Coach Jim Harbaugh has had a surprisingly hard time developing a passing attack given his history. Despite that, this is a team expected to improve on both sides of the ball. After a brutal 2020 shortened season, Michigan is poised to win about seven games this year, if they can get over Wisconsin and Penn State.

No. 14 – Eastern Michigan: A high-powered offense, hampered by a defense that gives up just as many points. Their 2020 campaign was a struggle, but the Eagles are better than they showed. A friendly schedule of home games is setting them up to win six or more games and could be competing in a bowl game.

No. 13 – Virginia Tech: After playing for the ACC championship in 2016, the Hokies were on a higher level for a few years. But recent struggles have left them looking like a much worse team than their history suggests. Losing records in two of the last three seasons mean they have a great chance to turn this around. This year, they expect to compete for the division title.

No. 12 – Southern Miss: Major improvements to the offensive line are needed, and adding a potential star talent transfer in Khalique Washington will help. A very nice schedule shows every game as a win possibility, except for the week they get a first-hand look at Alabama.

No. 11 – Kentucky: Seeing Phil Steele list Kentucky as one of his most improved teams seems unusual in the loaded SEC. However, a closer look at their schedule makes it seem a bit more realistic. They avoid playing Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Ole Miss. This team finished last in total yards and had the worst passing attack in the conference. It has to get better than that.

No. 10 – Air Force: Another team that seems hard-pressed to improve, there is a major list of challenges they face. An entirely new offensive line, and because the military schools don’t get to be super seniors they will be far behind in experience compared to the rest of college football in 2021. Still, the best rushing attack in the nation and a tough defense will keep them competitive.

No. 9 – Central Michigan: A whopping 21 starters are returning to this team; so they are almost certain to improve. Capable of winning against anyone else in the MAC, their ability to polish their team with an extra year of experience will make a difference. Compared to Eastern Michigan, this team is expecting to play in a bowl game.

No. 8 – Ole Miss: The third-best offense in the nation has four starting linemen returning. They’re going to score, and score in bunches. They will play LSU at home, and Texas A&M close to the end of the season. This team could derail championship dreams on their way to a seven-win season.

No. 7 – San Diego State: A very tough schedule loaded with late road games will make this season hard. Even worse, their home stadium this season is 100 miles away from the campus. Difficulty aside, this is a team that can play defense and run. A woefully weak passing game won’t outweigh their strengths and they are expecting to dominate the conference.

No. 6 – Wake Forest: A surprisingly good offense, with problems on the offensive line that will improve with all five starters returning. Similar issues on the defensive side make this a hard sell. If they can make a leap as an offense, they could upset teams like Syracuse. But they’re facing a challenge to even make it to a bowl game.

No. 5 – Houston: From a 3-5 record last year, the Cougars are set to improve fast and in a big way. A really good defense with almost all starters returning, and the offense keeps eight of theirs. This recipe means they should be able to overcome their offensive inconsistency from 2020. On paper, this team is looking to win at least eight games.

No. 4 – Wyoming: An incredible running back duo and a great defense are covered up by their 2020 record of 2-4. They’ve got 21 returning starters and talent to compete. A very winnable schedule puts them in position to win a bunch of games.

No. 3 – Arizona State: Not the most talented in the Pac-12, but they stood on equal ground to Oregon and USC. This season they look to improve in general, but some help from the schedule is always welcomed. They don’t play Oregon at all, and they get to play USC at home. They will play up to the competition, if they could just fix dropping games they’re favored in.

No. 2 – LSU: Coach Ed Orgeron is looking to pretend the 2020 season was a fluke. The Tigers may be considered one of the most improved teams, but they’re not far removed from their excellent 2019 season. This team is ready to compete again. If they get back into form they can challenge Texas A&M and more importantly they could be looking for a national playoff bid. Unlikely to see a Ed Orgeron-led team go .500 again.

No. 1 – Penn State: If quarterback Sean Clifford shows himself to be a great one, this team is going to rise quickly. All positions on this team feature great depth, and that talent is needed to win the eight games they’re predicted to. They’re not quite ready to vault into the Big Ten title conversation. Ohio State alone makes that impossible. But they’re going to beat a lot of teams who expect them to be easy.