Postseason Preview: How SEC baseball teams stack up in NCAA Tournament picture
Four weekends remain before the page turns from the regular season to the postseason across college baseball. As we enter a pivotal point in the season with opportunities to bolster resumes dwindling, SEC baseball teams are looking to solidify their standing for the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
64 teams will make the NCAA Tournament. 16 teams will serve as regional hosts across the country, with four teams in each regional.
In D1Baseball’s latest Field of 64 projection, released on April 19, ten teams from the SEC were included in the field. Another was listed as one of the first five teams out of the tournament, with the other three missing the cut entirely.
A few teams from the SEC are set in stone for this year’s NCAA baseball tournament. However, others are far from guarantees. Here is where very team from the strong conference stands, and what they have left on the schedule.
Locks from SEC for NCAA baseball tournament
Record: 32-7 (12-5 in SEC games)
RPI: 3
Remaining midweek games: vs. Nicholls, vs. SE Louisiana, vs. Northwestern State, vs. McNeese
Remaining weekend series: vs. Alabama, at Auburn, vs. Mississippi State, at Georgia
LSU is not only locked into the postseason, but the Tigers are all but guaranteed to be one of the top eight regional hosts. That would mean that LSU would host a super regional in the second round, should they win their regional. With a top three RPI, LSU isn’t really in danger of falling much at all over the final weeks of the year. It’s safe to say that the Tigers will be either the top overall seed in the tournament, and it’s hard to see them falling far even if they struggle down the stretch.
Unsurprisingly, LSU was tabbed as the No. 1 overall seed in D1Baseball’s projected field last week.
Record: 34-6 (13-4)
RPI: 1
Remaining midweek games: at Winthrop, vs. North Florida, vs. Charlotte
Remaining weekend series: vs. Auburn, at Kentucky, at Arkansas, vs. Tennessee
South Carolina is another team that’s firmly locked into the tournament and likely as a top eight overall seed. The Gamecocks currently stand at No. 1 in RPI, with more opportunities to strengthen that over the final weeks. With series against Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee remaining, South Carolina definitely won’t have an easy finish to the year. But if they keep doing what they have been all year, they will likely finish as a top three overall seed.
D1Baseball projected South Carolina as the No. 5 overall seed in their most recent projected field, which was released prior to this past week’s results.
Record: 29-11 (13-5)
RPI: 8
Remaining midweek games: vs. Georgia State, at Louisville, vs. MTSU
Remaining weekend series: vs. Kentucky, at Alabama, at Florida, vs. Arkansas
There isn’t a real path to Vanderbilt not hosting a regional when it’s all said and done. Even after suffering a sweep against Tennessee this past weekend, the Commodores are essentially locked in at this point. Currently holding the No. 8 RPI, Vanderbilt is trying to solidify a spot as a top eight seed. In addition to a midweek trip to Louisville coming up, Vanderbilt has opportunities to boost its resume over the final weekends of SEC play.
Vanderbilt was the No. 3 overall seed as a regional host in D1Baseball’s projected field.
Record: 31-10 (11-7)
RPI: 9
Remaining midweek games: vs. North Florida, vs. Florida State
Remaining weekend series: vs. Missouri, at Texas A&M, vs. Vanderbilt, at Kentucky
At this point, Florida is trying to ensure that it is a top eight seed as a regional host at season’s end. It would be surprising to see the Gators fall out of the hosting picture, as they currently sit at No. 9 in RPI. If the season ended today, Florida would likely be a top eight seed and in line to host a super regional. But with some important weekends coming up, the Gators still need to take care of business to guarantee that.
Florida was the No. 7 overall seed as a regional host in D1Baseball’s projected field.
Record: 30-10 (11-7)
RPI: 5
Remaining midweek games: at Missouri State, vs. Lipscomb
Remaining weekend series: vs. Texas A&M, at Mississippi State, vs. South Carolina, at Vanderbilt
Injuries have had an impact over recent weeks for the Razorbacks, and that was apparent this past weekend when Arkansas was swept by Georgia. That being said, Arkansas is still very likely going to be hosting a regional this season. The Razorbacks sit top five in RPI entering Tusday. With series against Texas A&M and Mississippi State, two teams looking to solidify their spot in the tournament, plus a brutal two-weekend stretch to end the year, Arkansas will have its hands full. But it’s tough to see a postseason field without the Razorbacks hosting a regional.
Although D1Baseball’s field was projected prior to this weekend, it had Arkansas as the No. 4 overall seed.
Record: 30-9 (11-7)
RPI: 2
Remaining midweek games: vs. Louisville, vs. Tennessee Tech
Remaining weekend series: at Vanderbilt, vs. South Carolina, at Tennessee, vs. Florida
What Kentucky has done this season is very impressive. They currently sit at No. 2 in RPI with the No. 1 strength of schedule. The Wildcats have just two midweek games left, one of which is against a good Louisville team. Kentucky then has a brutal four-weekend gauntlet to end the year, with home series against South Carolina and Florida and road trips to Vanderbilt and Tennessee. That stretch could do a lot for Kentucky, but it could also hurt them.
D1Baseball has Kentucky as the No. 10 overall seed, just missing out on a top eight national seed. The Wildcats are still hosting a regional, though, and if they can pick up a couple of series victories over the final weeks, they’ll surely be hosting. But if Kentucky struggles, they could fall to the 2-seed range, though they’ll still be a strong option to host.
On the bubble
Record: 26-14 (8-10)
RPI: 26
Remaining midweek games: vs. Bellarmine, vs. Wofford, vs. Austin Peay, vs. Belmont
Remaining weekend series: vs. Mississippi State, at Georgia, vs. Kentucky, at South Carolina
After sweeping Vanderbilt this past weekend, Tennessee is in the NCAA Tournament field and it might feel off not having them as a lock. But if the Vols falter down the stretch, they could fall out. Tennessee’s No. 26 RPI paired with a No. 17 strength of schedule bodes well for their postseason chances. If they finish the season strong, they could finish in the 2-seed range. But the Vols are below .500 in SEC play, and if that dips over the final weeks, there’s a scenario where they fall out of the NCAA baseball tournament.
Tennessee also has an 8-11 record against RPI top 50 teams. The Vols were a 3-seed in the Bloomington Regional in D1Baseball’s projected field.
Record: 25-15 (9-9)
RPI: 30
Remaining midweek games: vs. Sam Houston, vs. Tarleton, vs. UT Rio Grande
Remaining weekend series: at Arkansas, vs. Florida, vs. Alabama, at Mississippi State
If the season ended today, Texas A&M would probably be in the tournament. The Aggies are .500 in SEC play with a top 30 RPI, though the next couple of weekends could be telling for their postseason fate. Texas A&M plays two NCAA tournament locks in Arkansas and Florida, and then faces off against two fellow bubble teams to round out the year. Those results will determine the hopes of the Aggies.
In D1Baseball’s projections, Texas A&M was the 2-seed in the Austin Regional.
Record: 29-12 (9-9)
RPI: 20
Remaining midweek games: vs. Samford, vs. Troy
Remaining weekend series: at LSU, vs. Vanderbilt, at Texas A&M, vs. Ole Miss
Like Texas A&M, Alabama is a tournament team if the season ended right now. But it’s not, and the Crimson Tide still need to do a little more to guarantee their spot. Alabama has a tough midweek test against Troy (RPI No. 34) in the future, as well as series against LSU, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. They do finish against Ole Miss, which should be a nice opportunity for a series win to end the regular season.
Alabama is currently 4-6 against RPI Top 25 teams, though they are 11-9 against RPI Top 50 teams with a strength of schedule of 28. D1Baseball tabbed the Crimson Tide as the 3-seed in the Greenville Regional in their recent projections.
Record: 23-17 (7-11)
RPI: 18
Remaining midweek games: vs. Georgia State, vs. Kennesaw State, vs. SC Upstate, vs. Western Carolina
Remaining weekend series: at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee, at Missouri, vs. LSU
Sweeping Arkansas this past weekend did wonders for Georgia. With an impressive RPI of No. 18 despite a 23-17 overall record that includes a 7-11 mark against SEC teams, the Bulldogs could surely sneak into the NCAA baseball tournament. Georgia heads to Ole Miss this weekend and later travels to Missouri, but home series against Tennessee and LSU provide the Bulldogs with even more opportunities for boosts to their resume.
Georgia was not included in D1Baseball’s most recent NCAA Tournament projections, one of four SEC teams to miss the cut. But that has likely changed after the last week.
Record: 23-16-1 (7-11)
RPI: 38
Remaining midweek games: vs. Troy, at Samford, vs. Jacksonville State
Remaining midweek series: at South Carolina, vs. LSU, at Ole Miss, vs. Missouri
Edging out Mississippi State this weekend was important for Auburn, as both teams are close to each other on the bubble. The Tigers have the No. 11 strength of schedule, but an RPI of No. 38 isn’t quite enough to ensure a spot in the tournament. Facing Troy during the midweek could be an important one, as will Auburn’s remaining weekend series. Pulling off an upset over South Carolina or LSU would give the Tigers a big boost.
D1Baseball did not have Auburn in their latest Field of 64 projection, though the Tigers were one of the first five teams out.
Record: 23-17 (6-12)
RPI: 37
Remaining midweek games: vs. Ole Miss, vs. Memphis, vs. North Alabama
Remaining weekend series: at Tennessee, vs. Arkansas, at LSU, vs. Texas A&M
This time last week, Mississippi State might have been in. But after losing a tight series to Auburn, they might be on the wrong side of the bubble. The Bullldogs have the No. 6 strength of schedule, but their No. 37 RPI could use a boost. The end to the season will not be easy for Mississippi State, with all four weekends being against teams that are likely in the field. The Bulldogs need to win a couple of those series to make it in.
D1Baseball had Mississippi State as the 3-seed in the Winston-Salem Regional as one of the last five teams in in their projected field.
Record: 23-16 (5-13)
RPI: 40
Remaining midweek games: at SIUE, vs. Kansas, vs. Indiana State
Remaining weekend series: at Florida, vs. Ole Miss, vs. Georgia, at Auburn
At this point, it’s probably safe to assume that Missouri is going to miss out on the NCAA baseball tournament this season. The Tigers can’t fully be counted out, but a 5-13 SEC record with an RPI of No. 40 does not bode well. Missouri does have a midweek chance for an RPI boost, facing off against Indiana State (currently RPI No. 10) in a couple of weeks. The Tigers likely need to win that as well as win each of their remaining weekend series to get in.
Missouri was not included in D1Baseball’s most recent field.
Out of the picture
Record: 21-19 (3-15)
RPI: 62
Remaining midweek games: at Mississippi State, vs. Little Rock, vs. Austin Peay
Remaining weekend series: vs. Georgia, at Missouri, vs. Auburn, at Alabama
For the second consecutive season, the defending national champion is going to not only miss out on the next NCAA Tournament, but also likely miss the SEC baseball tournament. Last year, Mississippi State missed out after winning the 2021 title. Now, it looks like the Rebels will do the same. Injuries have played a big role in this year’s struggles, but regardless, Ole Miss has endured a frustrating season. With a 3-15 SEC record and an RPI north of No. 60, Ole Miss doesn’t really have a path to making it in outside of making it into the SEC Tournament and going on a run and winning that.
Ole Miss was unsurprisingly left out of D1Baseball’s latest projected field.