Postseason Preview: Where every SEC baseball team stands entering final three weeks
Just three weeks remain in college baseball’s regular season, but the postseason picture is far from settled. While some teams in the SEC are seemingly locked in to a spot in the NCAA baseball tournament field, others are firmly on the bubble with a couple likely on the outside looking in.
In D1Baseball’s latest Field of 64 projection entering this past weekend, ten SEC teams were included. One other team from the srong conference was listed as one of the final five teams out, while three missed the cut entirely.
With three weeks left before the SEC baseball tournament, teams are running out of time to put a stamp on their postseason resumes. As we enter the final stretch, here is where every team stands.
Likely locks from SEC for NCAA Baseball Tournament
Record: 35-8 (15-5 in SEC games)
RPI: 3
Remaining midweek games: vs. SE Louisiana, vs. Northwestern State, McNeese
Remaining weekend series: at Auburn, vs. Mississippi State, at Georgia
LSU’s week started off with a midweek loss against Nicholls, but the Tigers responded in strong fashion with a tight weekend series sweep over Alabama. Sitting at 35-8 overall with a 15-5 SEC record, paired with the No. 3 RPI, LSU is locked in to the top overall seed should they take care of business over the final weeks.
LSU still has three midweek games left, but a relatively light weekend slate over the final weekends bodes well for their chances to continue dominating. The Tigers were tabbed as the top overall seed in D1Baseball’s projected field entering this past weekend. It’s tough to see them falling below that.
Record: 32-11 (16-5)
RPI: 6
Remaining midweek games: vs. Georgia State, at Louisville, vs. MTSU
Remaining weekend series: at Alabama, at Florida, vs. Arkansas
Vanderbilt didn’t have a midweek game last week, going straight into a weekend series against Kentucky. The Commodores picked up an impressive sweep. Vanderbilt now leads the SEC in conference wins, although LSU is one behind with one less SEC game under their belt. In addition to facing Alabama, Florida and Arkansas over the final weekends, Vanderbilt has another good midweek opportunity coming up at Louisville.
At this point, Vanderbilt is a lock to be one of the nation’s top eight overall seeds as a regional host. D1Baseball’s field reflected that, having the Commodores as the No. 4 overall seed.
Record: 35-10 (14-7)
RPI: 9
Remaining midweek games: vs. Florida State
Remaining weekend series: at Texas A&M, vs. Vanderbilt, at Kentucky
Florida had an impressive week, going 4-0 overall. The Gators picked up a three-game sweep at home over Missouri. Facing Florida State in the Gators’ final midweek game will be an interesting contest, and it sets up an important finish to the regular season. With series at Texas A&M and Kentucky, plus a home series with Vanderbilt left on the schedule, Florida’s road isn’t easy. While they are safely in the hosting picture, Florida could fall out of the top eight range if they stumble to finish the year.
D1Baseball tabbed the Gators as the No. 7 overall seed in their latest projected field.
Record: 35-8 (14-6)
RPI: 2
Remaining midweek games: at Winthrop, vs. North Florida, vs. Charlotte
Remaining weekend series: at Kentucky, at Arkansas, vs. Tennessee
South Carolina entered last week as the likely favorite to be the No. 3 overall seed, but the Gamecocks had an interesting week. They did not have a midweek game, and then lost the first two games of the weekend at home against Auburn. South Carolina won the finale to avoid the sweep, but it’s safe to say nobody was expecting that result.
The Gamecocks are a lock to host a regional, and likely as a top eight national seed at that. They were tabbed as the No. 3 seed nationally prior to falling to Auburn, and the final three weeks could be interesting to follow. With challenging series against Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee remaining, South Carolina could potentially fall back outside of the top eight, though they would have to seriously struggle for it to be a possibility.
Record: 33-11 (14-7)
RPI: 5
Remaining midweek games: vs. Lipscomb
Remaining weekend series: at Mississippi State, vs. South Carolina, at Vanderbilt
Arkansas has struggled with injuries as of late, and as a result have played inconsistently. After losing to Missouri State on Tuesday of last week, that appeared to be continuing. But the Razorbacks came into the weekend against Texas A&M and earned a three-game sweep. At this point, Arkansas is a lock to host a regional. They could potentially finish anywhere from top five overall to the 10-13 range, depending on how they finish the season.
Arkansas was the No. 5 overall seed in the latest field projection from D1Baseball.
Record: 30-14 (11-10)
RPI: 22
Remaining midweek games: vs. Wofford, vs. Austin Peay, vs. Belmont
Remaining weekend series: at Georgia, vs. Kentucky, at South Carolina
While this season has not been a straight line for Tennessee, the Vols have played their way into being firmly in the NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest baseball teams in the SEC and nationwide. A 4-0 week has Tennessee with 30 wins and back above .500 in SEC play, as well as top 22 in RPI. The Vols face Georgia, Kentucky and South Carolina over the final weeks, and they could truly finish in a wide ranging number of spots in the tournament.
D1Baseball had Tennessee as the No. 2 seed in the Bloomington Regional in their latest field. The Vols are locked into a 2-seed at this point, although hosting a regional can’t be ruled out.
Record: 30-13
RPI: 4
Remaining midweek games: vs. Tennessee Tech
Remaining weekend series: vs. South Carolina, at Tennessee, vs. Florida
Kentucky has struggled over the last month, putting them in an interesting spot for the postseason. A likely lock to host a regional a couple of weeks ago, Kentucky is now likely on the 2-seed line. With four straight series losses and a 3-9 record in their last 12 SEC games, the Wildcats are definitely trending downwards. It won’t get any easier, either, with challenging weekends remaining against South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida.
If Kentucky loses those three series and enters the SEC having lost seven straight weekends, they could potentially be in a bit of trouble. But at this point, it’s safe to assume that they’ll be in the field, largely due to the No. 4 RPI the Wildcats currently hold.
On the bubble
Record: 30-15 (9-12)
RPI: 21
Remaining midweek games: vs. Troy
Remaining weekend series: vs. Vanderbilt, at Texas A&M, vs. Ole Miss
If the season ended today, Alabama is in the NCAA Tournament. They have an RPI on the verge of top 20, plus an impressive overall record of 30-15. But with a 9-12 SEC record and three weekends left, they aren’t exactly a guarantee. Additionally, Alabama has a challenging midweek game against Troy coming up. Win that and at least two of their final three weekend series? The Crimson Tide will be in. But lose to Troy and lose two series to end the year, and the Crimson Tide will be on the bubble.
Alabama was in D1Baseball’s latest field, as the No. 2 seed in the Winston-Salem Regional.
Record: 25-18-1 (9-12)
RPI: 34
Remaining midweek games: at Samford, vs. Jacksonville State
Remaining weekend series: vs. LSU, at Ole Miss, vs. Missouri
Auburn lost last week during the midweek to Troy, but then walked into South Carolina and stole an impressive series. The Tigers won the first two games to clinch the series, but were not able to complete the sweep. Auburn was squarely on the bubble entering last weekend, and that is probably enough to have them in if the season ended today. Facing off against LSU this weekend will be a tough test, but series against Ole Miss and Missouri over the final two weekends bodes well for Auburn’s chances.
D1Baseball had Auburn as one of the first five teams out of the field in their latest Field of 64.
Record: 25-19 (9-12)
RPI: 44
Remaining midweek games: vs. Tarleton, vs. UT Rio Grande
Remaining weekend series: vs. Florida, vs. Alabama, at Mississippi State
Texas A&M is one of the most interesting teams in the SEC, and also on this year’s NCAA baseball tournament bubble. The Aggies were a preseason ranked team, but they have gone on a bit of an up-and-down-campaign. Currently sitting at just 25-19, 9-12 in the SEC and holding an RPI of No. 44, the Aggies might not be on the right side of the bubble after getting swept at Arkansas this past weekend.
D1Baseball had Texas A&M as the No. 2 seed in the Dallas Regional entering last weekend. But the Aggies continue to trend towards the bubble, and they are in danger of falling out without a strong end to the year.
Record: 24-20 (8-13)
RPI: 23
Remaining midweek games: vs. Kennesaw State, vs. SC Upstate, vs. Western Carolina
Remaining weekend series: vs. Tennessee, at Missouri, vs. LSU
Georgia is truly an unpredictable case on this year’s bubble. The Bulldogs are just 24-20 overall and 8-13 in conference play, yet they hold an RPI of No. 23 and still have weekends against Tennessee and LSU left, in addition to Missouri. Going 1-3 this week and losing to Ole Miss hurt the Bulldogs, but they can still sneak in, although it would likely take series wins in each of their final three series.
Georgia was one of D1Baseball’s last five teams in their latest projected field. Though that came before this past weekend, which likely has the Bulldogs on the outside right now.
Out of the picture
Record: 24-20 (6-15)
RPI: 50
Remaining midweek games: vs. Memphis, vs. North Alabama
Remaining weekend series: vs. Arkansas, at LSU, vs. Texas A&M
Winning this past weekend’s series at Tennessee could have been huge for Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs instead got swept and are likely out of the running to make this year’s field. With an RPI of No. 50 and a 6-15 SEC record, there isn’t much of a path to making this year’s NCAA baseball tournament for Mississippi State, barring an unexpected run in the SEC Tournament.
The Bulldogs missed the cut in D1Baseball’s latest field.
Record: 23-21 (5-16)
RPI: 65
Remaining midweek games: vs. Little Rock, vs. Austin Peay
Remaining weekend series: at Missouri, vs. Auburn, at Alabama
Ole Miss picked up a series victory this past weekend over Georgia, but it’s too little too late for the defending national champions. The Rebels have an RPI of 65, are sitting barely above .500 at 23-21 and a poor 5-16 SEC record. There isn’t a path to making a run, unless they unexpectedly win the SEC Tournament and guarantee it.
Record: 24-19 (5-16)
RPI: 42
Remaining midweek games: vs. Kansas, vs. Indiana State
Remaining weekend series: vs. Ole Miss, vs. Georgia, at Auburn
Missouri was ranked earlier in the season, but the Tigers have seen no success during SEC play after the first weekend. The Tigers are 5-16 in conference play, with a 24-19 overall record. Missouri does hold an RPI of No. 42, but it’s tough to see them sneaking in at this point.
The Tigers have a midweek game against Indiana State coming up, which is an opportunity against a top ten RPI team. They then play Ole Miss, Georgia and Auburn over the final three weekends, and they would probably have to sweep each of them to get into the discussion.