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Predicting Ole Miss' chances to win at Georgia

Untitled design (2)by: Sam Gillenwater10/16/25samdg_33

Ole Miss pulled the upset last season on Georgia in Oxford. Now, going between the hedges this year, Josh Pate thinks the Rebels have a chance to do it again, especially if they can get off to a good start against the Bulldogs.

Pate previewed this game, a Top 10 matchup in the SEC of No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Georgia, while on ‘Get Up’ on Thursday morning. He highlighted the first half as key in this one, considering how these two teams have started off games. The ‘Dawgs have been, for the most part, getting it done this season despite slow starts, but they might not be able to afford another one against the Rebels on Saturday afternoon.

“Yeah, just watch the first half. Georgia has been a very bad first-half team this year. Ole Miss is No. 6 in first-half scoring this year. Georgia, defensively, is 85th in that category,” Pate noted. “Georgia got itself in a hole against Tennessee, but they were able to shoot their way back to a win. They got themselves in a hole against Alabama at home, and they weren’t able to come back from behind. Inexplicably got themselves in a hole against Auburn last week, and then the officiating was a disaster and they come from behind in that one. If they get in a hole against Ole Miss, Ole Miss can explosive play you all day.”

Ole Miss is 6-0 this season with an average margin of victory of 18.6 points, while Georgia is 5-1 this fall at an average margin of 15.2. However, getting into the scores for each team at the halfway point of their years, the Rebels are 6-0 in the first half by an average lead of 9.7, while the Bulldogs are just 3-3 in the first half by an average margin of 4.7. That’s with UGA having started fairly to completely slow in two-thirds of their games against Austin Peay as well as versus the Volunteers, Crimson Tide, and Tigers.

Based on those statistics, Pate is taking a cover, if not an outright win, by Ole Miss in Athens. His only wonder beyond that is if the Rebs, who remain one of the few undefeated teams left this season, can prove themselves in what’s the biggest road game of their year against the ‘Dawgs.

“I’m leaning Ole Miss plus any points that people give me, because I think there’s a shot at the outright win here,” Pate said. “The only question – is Ole Miss legitimate? Like, they could be a complete pretender, they could be an absolute contender. They just haven’t been tested like Georgia has.”


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