Predicting the College Football Playoff Rankings: Georgia stays at No. 1, Florida State returns to Top 4

JesseReSimonton

The next edition of the 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings will be released Tuesday evening by the selection committee — the fifth of six rankings before Selection Day after conference championship weekend.

While Week 13 was mostly chaotic chalk — lots of wild endings but just one Top 10 upset — there doesn’t project to be a ton of movement in the penultimate College Football Playoff Rankings.

Michigan will move up to No. 2, and Florida State should return to the Top 4 even without starting quarterback Jordan Travis for the rest of the season.

But how far will Ohio State fall? Does the committee still see Oregon as the best one-loss team? Will Texas crack the Top 6?

Here is how we project how the selection committee sees the fourth 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings:

Nov 25, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs running back Kendall Milton (2) runs the ball against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the second half at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

1. Georgia

Georgia slept-walked its way past Georgia Tech to win its 29th-straight game — an SEC record. The Bulldogs are undefeated for the third consecutive regular season, and there’s little debate as to who looks like the best team in the country in 2023.

Even despite its resume (three wins over Top 20 teams) and eye test, UGA is not guaranteed a playoff berth unless it beats Alabama in the SEC Championship. Kirby Smart currently has more national titles than wins over Nick Saban, and he’ll need to change that to avoid any controversy where the Bulldogs would have to argue their way into the dance as a 12-1 non-league champion.

Jim Harbaugh-Michigan Wolverines-NIL-Michigan football — Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

2. Michigan

The Wolverines added their second Top 10 win in three weeks, knocking off Ohio State for the third-straight year. Sherrone Moore moved to 4-0 as the team’s substitute head coach, but he’ll now slide back into his role as OC with Jim Harbaugh returning to the sidelines Saturday against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship.

Michigan suffered a couple of key injuries in the win over the Buckeyes (Zak Zinter, Will Johnson), but it projects as a heavy favorite over the Hawkeyes and seems like a lock to make the CFP for the third year in a row.

Nov 18, 2023; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) gets pressure from Oregon State Beavers defensive lineman Joe Golden (95) during the fourth quarter at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports

3. Washington

The Huskies squeaked out another close, ugly win, beating rival Washington State 24-21 to cap the school’s first undefeated regular season in 32 years. The three-point victory was their sixth win in one-score games — more than any team in the country.

Washington is certainly not clicking on all cylinders offensively heading into its rematch with Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship. Michael Penix Jr. is averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt in the last two games and his beautiful moon ball has been off. The Huskies haven’t scored more than 35 points in almost a month.

Their resume remains strong (four wins over Top 25 teams (Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona and Utah), but they’ll have to beat the Ducks again to secure a playoff spot.

Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tate Rodemaker (18) finds a receiver at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, November 25, 2023 during the second half. Florida State won 24-15. [Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun]

4. Florida State

The Seminoles chopped their way to a win over Florida, and while Tate Rodemaker is an obvious downgrade at quarterback compared to Jordan Travis, FSU is still undefeated and deserving of a Top 4 spot.

Florida State’s resume remained mostly static after Week 13, as both of its Top 25 wins (LSU and Clemson) won over the weekend. Louisville losing wasn’t great for the ACC, but if the ‘Noles beat the Cardinals in the title game, it would seem preposterous for the committee to leave out an undefeated, Power 5 conference champion.

FIRST TWO OUT

5. Oregon

Bo Nix, Troy Franklin and the rest of the Ducks continue to just bulldoze teams, capping their 11-1 regular season with a 31-7 wipeout of rival Oregon State. The victory seriously improved Oregon’s weak resume, though, as it gave the Ducks their lone victory over a current CFP-ranked team.

Outside of the close loss at Washington, the Ducks have been as dominant as any team not named Michigan or Georgia. There’s a case the committee believes they’re a better team than FSU without Travis. But rather than jump the gun a week early, why not let the results play out on this weekend?

Beat Washington in Las Vegas and Oregon looks like a strong bet to be in the Top 4.

6. Ohio State

Even after losing to Michigan on Saturday, the Buckeyes remain in the Top 6 — for now. The committee is unlikely to penalize Ohio State, which has wins over Penn State and Notre Dame, too harshly for losing a one-score game on the road to an archrival.

And yet, the Buckeyes have little hope of backing their way into the CFP like they did in 2022. Texas will assuredly leapfrog OSU in the final rankings if the Longhorns win the Big 12 title game.