Predicting the final 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings: Michigan at No. 1, Texas and Alabama both crack the Top 4
No matter what happens Sunday around 12:30 p.m., there will be controversy with the final 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings.
After an eventful Conference Championship Weekend that saw Alabama upset No. 1 Georgia, Florida State win a defensive slobbernocker with a third-string quarterback against Louisville and Texas manhandle Oklahoma State, as many as six teams have arguments for four spots.
What will the selection committee do?
They face their hardest decision since 2014, with whoever gets ranked No. 5 and No. 6 having a legitimate reason to bellyache about getting left out. Is it “best” or “most deserving?”
Resume and results versus truth serum?
With the games all in the books, here’s how we project the selection committee will unveil the final 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings:
1. Michigan
The Wolverines claimed the Big Ten title for the third season in a row with a win over Iowa in Indianapolis, and while there could be a debate over whether they actually should be such a unanimous No. 1, they do have three wins in four weeks against Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa. Jim Harbaugh returned to the sidelines just in time to awkwardly accept the Big Ten trophy from commissioner Tony Petitti, too.
The actual gameplay Saturday night certainly couldn’t have impressed the committee (just 213 total yards), but Michigan is undefeated, with a dominant game-control metric. They already had an edge as the No. 2 team, so with Georgia’s loss, they slid into the top spot.
2. Washington
The Huskies showed their late-game guts for the fourth-straight week, rallying to beat No. 5 Oregon 34-31 in the Pac-12 Championship on Friday night.
Washington now has a pair of wins over the Ducks and will become the first Pac-12 team — in the final year of the league as we know it — to make the College Football Playoff field since 2016.
The Huskies’ latest three-point victory was their seventh win in one-score games this season — more than any team in the country.
With a healthy complement of wideouts for the first time in weeks, Michael Penix Jr. found his groove by throwing for more than 300 yards, while tailback Dillion Johnson continued his late-season surge with 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
3. Texas
The Longhorns are 12-1 and the Big 12 champs with one of the best singular wins of the 2023 season — a double-digit victory at Alabama in Week 2.
While the Tide are certainly an improved team since that win, Texas did everything it needed to make its first College Football Playoff.
They went 11-1 in the regular season, with Top 25 wins over Alabama, Kansas and Kansas State. The Longhorns then pasted Oklahoma State 49-21 in Dallas to win their first Big 12 title since 2009.
The Longhorns have been impressive down the stretch, too, hanging 55 on Texas Tech and then watching Quinn Ewers throw for a title-game record 453 yards against the Pokes. They’re a complete team, with a Top 25 offense and defense in yards per play.
4. Alabama
The Crimson Tide were the lowest-ranked one-loss team entering the weekend, but they own perhaps the most impressive victory now with a 27-24 upset in the SEC Championship Game over No. 1 Georgia — the two-time champs and winners of 29-straight games.
The Tide have a head-to-head loss at home against Texas, but they also have four wins (including now against No. 1) over current Top 25 CFP teams versus three.
Jalen Milroe was benched following the loss to Texas, but he reclaimed his starting spot two weeks later and developed into a scary weapon offensively. Alabama has one of the best defenses in the nation, too.
The SEC has never missed the College Football Playoff since its inception. Is this really going to be the year the conference gets left out, especially when the committee could have a matchup featuring Michigan and Alabama in a semifinal?
FIRST TWO OUT
5. Florida State
The Seminoles gutted out a victory over Louisville for the ACC Championship, but while they’re an undefeated, conference champion, they could be on the outside looking in because they’re without their starting quarterback Jordan Travis.
It ain’t fair. It probably isn’t right. And the ’Noles would absolutely have a legitimate argument to getting screwed as a deserved Top 4 team. But if Bill Hancock is to be believed — that best over most deserving is the committee’s declaration — then FSU looks positioned to get shafted Sunday afternoon.
6. Georgia
Georgia saw its 29-game winning streak snapped in its SEC Championship loss to Alabama, falling 27-24 to the Crimson Tide in what likely dooms its quest for a historic three-peat.
Despite some unusual sloppiness (penalties, turnover, missed FG) and unluckiness (very questionable 4th-down conversion that setup a Crimson Tide touchdown late in the first half), the Bulldogs went toe-to-toe with Alabama playing its C- minus game.
Kirby Smart is correct in his belief that the reigning two-time champs are one of the best four teams in the country, but that’s never actually been how the selection committee arrives at the four-team field.
At 12-1 as a non-league champ, Georgia will most likely end up in the Orange Bowl.