Rece Davis, Pete Thamel both downplay Vanderbilt's chances to upset Alabama

Vanderbilt shocked college football last season by upsetting Alabama, the top team in the country at the time, in Nashville. Now, a year later, in what’s a Top 20 matchup and with ‘College GameDay’ coming to Tuscaloosa, could the Commodores do it again to the Crimson Tide?

ESPN’s Rece Davis and Pete Thamel picked the game between No. 16 Vandy and No. 10 ‘Bama this week during an episode of the ‘College GameDay Podcast.’ As one of the games of the week, it was among the six that they picked during the segment, especially as their show will be in attendance tomorrow in T-Town.

“College GameDay will be in Tuscaloosa for Vanderbilt and Alabama,” Davis began. “We think back to the win that Vanderbilt had last year…Can Vandy turn the trick and go back-to-back against the Tide?”

A year ago, Vanderbilt did the unthinkable by winning 40-35 over No. 1 Alabama in Music City. The Commodores took a 13-point lead to start out and as much as a 16-point lead in the second quarter before the Tide came in to make things close in the third.

But Vandy scored 10 more in the fourth quarter to close it out and force the stadium goalposts to go downtown to Broadway and into the Cumberland River. It was also the sport’s introduction to Diego Pavia, who was 16-20 (80%) for 252 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing 20 times for 56 more yards in the win.

Vanderbilt has, as its quarterback puts it, been turnt since then, with the Commodores having gone 10-4 in their last 14, including a 5-0 start to this season. That has earned the Commodores their highest ranking in over a decade and a half at No. 16 in the AP Poll.

On the other side, Alabama has, since that loss, been 8-5, with there having been concerns about the program at several points since losing on West End. But, that said, the Crimson Tide have been much improved this season since losing their opener, which was proven last weekend when they went on the road and won at Georgia.

So, almost a year to the day on Saturday, can Vanderbilt do it again, but this time in Bryant-Denny Stadium? Thamel and Davis think not. They differed on how they thought the game would play out scoring-wise, but despite an effort by the Commodores that could cause some nerves to come back from last season’s result, they each had the Tide winning this weekend.

“I mean, it would be unbelievable theater to see Vandy turn the trick,” Thamel said. “I just think we saw enough verve from Alabama in Athens last week that it’s hard to think, if they are blocking that well, especially up front and playing that well on defense, stopping the run, that Vandy would be able to find a way to outscore them. So, I think Alabama wins a close game, something like 21-20.”

“See, I think there’s going to be more scoring than that. I don’t know if it’ll be quite 40-35 like last year, but I will say that Pavia breaks the pocket, breaks down, makes some plays. But, in the end, man? Ty Simpson is legit. If not for a man called Jeremiah Smith, Germie Bernard would be a Biletnikoff candidate, and he still is a candidate – don’t get me wrong. But, I mean, he’s having en elite year,” Davis said. “I think Alabama wins. I don’t think it’s easy and I don’t think it quite goes down to nail-biting territory at the end but there will be anxious moments of ‘Oh no, here comes Pavia again’ among the Crimson Tide crowd on Saturday afternoon.”