San Diego State vs. UConn odds: Win probability, final score prediction in Sweet 16
With UConn, FAU and San Diego State all in the same sub-region, it was likely a Final Four rematch of some kind occurred in the Sweet 16, and we got it with a 2023 national championship rematch between the Huskies and Aztecs.
After earning a 4-seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament and storming through the Big Dance for another title, UConn returns this season as the presumptive favorite to go back-to-back. But standing in their way yet again is a feisty San Diego State club, that gave the Huskies quite a scare in the final minutes of that title game.
So, ahead of the rematch, read up below on all the betting lines, TV info and analysis:
Odds
FanDuel point spread: UConn -10.5
FanDuel money line: UConn (-670), San Diego State (+470)
FanDuel over/under: 135.5
FanDuel certainly doesn’t give the Aztecs much of a chance to reverse the outcome this time around. Funny enough, SDSU is seeding in the exact same spot they were last season, when they made it to the Sweet 16 and upset No. 1 overall seed Alabama. Oddsmakers aren’t so confident they can pull off the same magic with a huge +470 money line and a double-figure line in favor of UConn.
Final score predictions
KenPom final score: 73-65 UConn
KenPom win probability: UConn 77%
Normally, the betting markets and KenPom are fairly closely aligned, but this time, KP is a much bigger believer in the underdogs and gives them nearly a one-in-four shot to topple the tournament’s top seed. Plus, it only predicts a victory by eight points compared to the 11 UConn would need to win by to cover the FanDuel spread.
BPI prediction: UConn by 11.1 points
BPI win probability: UConn 86%
BPI matchup quality: 82.5 (last among Sweet 16 games)
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index is more on the side of the oddsmakers, expecting an 11-point win for UConn and an 86% chance of victory, a vast gap from the 77% by KenPom. Either way, FanDuel, KP, and BPI are in agreement on a UConn win by a decent amount.
How to watch
Time: 7:39 p.m. ET / 4:39 p.m. PT
Channel: TBS/TruTv, Prime Video (streaming)
Location: TD Garden (Boston, MA)
The prediction models don’t much like San Diego State here, and the BPI believes this is the most lopsided competition of the Sweet 16, believing it will be the least-competitive contest.
That’s counting out Brian Dutcher and San Diego State quite a bit. Sure, the Aztecs lost a slew of contributors off the 2023 team, but saw a star rise up in Jaedon LeDee, a 20-point-per-game scorer in 2024, while guard duo Darrian Tramell and Lamont Butler returned after making massive shots throughout last year’s run. Overall, they got back four of that team’s top six scorers, too.
Brian Dutcher noted last season that SDSU likes to get old and stay old. Well, they were old last year and are old again this season, but with a core of guys who know what it means to make it to April. UConn is and ought to be the solid favorite, but count the Aztecs out at your own peril, because they are no-doubt one of the premier programs in the sport in the 2020s.