Upset Alert: Which college football teams could be in danger of falling in Week 10

This is the time of year when games mean just a little bit more. November means races for conference championship games and the College Football Playoff takes center stage. Entire seasons can be made or hearts can be broken in big ways.

Josh Pate is always wary of an upset, producing another list of possible shockers during Thursday’s Josh Pate’s College Football Show. He put together six games to look out for, ranging the Upset Alert Meter from 2.5, all the way up to an eight.

All betting spreads are courtesy of BetMGM.

Penn State at Ohio State (-20.5)

Just a couple of months ago, everyone thought the buildup to this one would be intense. Another showdown between James Franklin and Ryan Day, potentially with two teams ranked inside the top five. Instead, the wheels have fallen off for Penn State, and Pate is not expecting much different in Columbus.

“It’s like a 2.5 for me,” Pate said. “No way Ohio State is about to let this happen… I, candidly — I expect it to be a very quick game. I don’t expect it to be in doubt in the fourth quarter.”

Texas Tech at Kansas State (+7.5)

“I haven’t heard much of a whisper about this game around the country this week,” Pate said. “You know what people are talking about? Some of them are talking about Texas Tech, saying, ‘Uh oh, they got Brigham Young next week.’ Yeah, they do. But they’ve got a game before that. It’s against Kansas State.”

This might be a classic case of one team looking ahead to a massive game, one where some national spotlight might be heading their way. Pate likes how Kansas State has played in recent weeks, specifically on offense. If Texas Tech is not careful, it might be on the wrong end. A high seven for the Upset Alert Meter.

South Carolina at Ole Miss (-12.5)

“This is one where that I just wouldn’t totally be shocked if things fell the right way,” Pate said. “To see if this is a very tight game in the fourth quarter.”

For Pate, the assumption that Ole Miss will waltz into the College Football Playoff unscathed is not a total reality. He is putting Lane Kiffin at a 5.5 on the Upset Alert Meter, needing to be a little careful at home.

Georgia Tech at NC State (+5.5)

“I’m putting an eight on this game on the Upset Alert Meter,” Pate said. “I have moderate to severe concerns for Georgia Tech this weekend.”

Why is the meter so high? The Georgia Tech run defense, which ranks No. 87 in the country. On the flip side, NC State has one of the better running backs in the country, Hollywood Smothers. He leads the ACC with 825 yards, possibly being the key to an upset.

Cincinnati at Utah (-10)

Weirdly enough, Pate and his model completely disagree on this game. The model has Utah winning and covering the spread, while Pate is far from the same confidence level.

“I put an eight on this game,” Pate said. “I’m very worried for Utah. But our model thinks they win and cover… I don’t know. I’ve seen Utah have a couple of opportunities to run away from folks this year and they really haven’t. So, until I see it, I haven’t seen it.”

Miami at SMU (+12.5)

Pate spoke about this game on his Tuesday show, predicting Miami to win but SMU to cover. He is sticking with the Hurricanes, although there are some nerves. Already seeing Miami lose once this year, Pate sends out warnings to everyone in Coral Gables.

“This is a seven for me,” Pate said. “I’m putting a seven on the Upset Alert Concern Meter there. Still picking Miami to win, still rolling with them to go to the Playoffs. But that doesn’t mean I can’t be a little nervous.”

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