Upset Alert: Which college football teams could be in danger of falling in Week 14

Rivalry week is here in college football. Two ends of the spectrum always take place. One team is usually pushing for something bigger, while the other is hoping to pull off a massive upset. And when they do, the win somehow seems so much better.

Josh Pate outlined a few upsets that could occur over Week 13 on Thursday’s Josh Pate’s College Football Show. He brought out the Upset Alert Meter to give his thoughts on six games to watch for. Spanning as low as 2.5 and as high as eight, some drama could unfold on Saturday.

Miami at Pitt

“I am concerned here,” Pate said. “I don’t like Miami in cold weather. I don’t like Miami on the road all that much. This is a pressure spot. Pitt is a top 20 pass, Miami’s defense top 30, but Miami’s defense is gettable through the air, and this is not your grandfather’s Pitt. They’ve got to throw the ball to win.”

The Upset Alert Meter sits at an eight in this one. If Miami were to lose, any chance of making the College Football Playoff (and ACC Championship) is gone. Cold weather and on-field pressure not mixing well in Pate’s mind.

Oregon at Washington

Pate is not buying into Oregon overlooking Washington after a big win. Given the rivalry status, he expected the Ducks to be ready to roll in Seattle. Even so, the Upset Alert Meter comes in at 7.5

“I think it could be a competitive game,” Pate said. “Oregon, we’ve seen them on the road at Penn State and they needed overtime to win. There was a last-second win on the road at Iowa. Even against Northwestern, they won… I think it could be a close game.”

LSU at Oklahoma

“LSU is going to Oklahoma,” Pate said. “Because, legally, they have to. The schedule says so… I hate the spot for LSU, I think the season is mailed in… Oklahoma is not getting got here. They’re too close.”

A win for the Sooners all but secures a spot in the College Football Playoff. Pate is not buying even a whiff of any kind of brouhaha, slotting the Upset Alert Meter at three, “out of respect of the legacy of LSU.”

Virginia Tech at Virginia

Being a rivalry game always brings a little bit of caution. However, a lot more is on the line for Virginia than what Virginia Tech is working with. Pate keeps the Upset Alert Meter low, coming in at a four.

“I think the will to win will be decidedly on the side of Virginia than Virginia Tech,” Pate said. “Virginia wins and they’re in the ACC Championship game. There are no hypotheticals, there are no more ‘Do this and count on that to happen.’ Virginia wins and they’re in it.”

Georgia at Georgia Tech

Haynes King became a legend in last year’s Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate, taking Georgia to the brink in multiple overtimes. Pate believes King will have to replicate the success for Georgia Tech to have success. And even so…

“Even if Haynes King has really good numbers, I don’t know how Tech keeps Georgia under 40,” Pate said. “So, it’s just profiling as that kind of game for me… It’s a 2.5 for me. I think Georgia Tech probably had 11 weeks’ worth of gas in the tank is a little bit close to empty right now. They’re not getting Georgia.”

Ole Miss at Mississippi State

“No. 32 rushing offense vs. No. 121 rushing defense,” Pate said. “That’s the story here. Don’t overthink it. Lane (Kiffin) likes to throw the ball. You know what he really likes to do? Win. And Ole Miss can run the ball for about a quarter mile in this game.”

What you cannot bake into stats are off-field distractions with Kiffin and coaching rumors. Pate takes that into account on the Upset Alert Meter, cranking it a few notches higher than he normally would at a six.