Will Toledo upset Kentucky in Week 1? Jason Candle betting on consistency in transfer portal era

Jason Candle will not change his pregame speech Saturday from the message he delivered to his team during winter workouts. The Toledo head coach is just not wired to deliver the speech that goes viral on social media. It’s why ESPN won’t have access this weekend.

That doesn’t mean the Rockets won’t show up on the field when they visit Kentucky for Week 1. Candle has built Toledo into one of the most consistent Group of Five programs in college football. He’s one win away from passing Gary Pinkel as the program’s all-time wins leader. Toledo’s 72 wins since 2016 are the most of any school in the MAC.

Headlines are aplenty in Week 1, with three top-10 matchups and Bill Belichick’s debut at Chapel Hill, among others. But Toledo is positioned to pull off one of the top upsets in college football’s opening weekend. It’s why Toledo enters Week 1 as only a 9.5-point underdog at Kentucky.

A year ago, the Rockets stunned Mississippi State 41-17 in Starkville. They’ll try to do the same Saturday in Lexington.

“We’re pretty process-driven here,” Candle told On3. “Same thing every week. If they’re waiting for an epic speech for me before we walk out on the field, it’s going to be a long day.”

Candle’s message of consistency rings true in his decision to stick with Toledo. Entering his 10th season with the Rockets, he’s turned down multiple opportunities. His name was tied to the Michigan offensive coordinator opening this season.

Players and coaches have bought in, too. It’s the only FBS program to have its head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and strength coach entering their sixth year together. Toledo has produced a draft pick for four consecutive years, with defensive back Quinyon Mitchell going No. 22 overall in 2024.

Eleven starters return from last year’s team, highlighted by quarterback Tucker Gleason, who has made 15 career starts.

“We’ve established a really good culture here,” Candle said. “In a world where everything is really divisive and everybody’s really for themselves, I think our locker room has maintained its humility and stayed together. When those times have shown up, we’ve been able to stick through those moments. And when you play these types of teams, adversity is going to come. It’s going to show up in multiple different ways. You’ve got to be able to weather the storm and thrive. Our teams have been able to do that.

“The first game is hard enough, let alone going on the road and playing at an SEC school. It’s a tremendous opportunity for us against a great opponent, one our kids will look forward to all year long. They all count as one, but for these guys and this level of football, and having a game like this on schedule, it’s a little bit bigger.”

Candle’s been able to continue stringing together winning seasons despite the NIL and transfer portal era. Toledo did not lose a single player to the transfer portal from its 2024 two-deep. Jason Candle jokes that the SEC schools he’s scheduled to play annually are the same ones calling his top players come the offseason.

“We’re in a world where you’re playing some of these schools, and in the offseason, they’re calling your guys and your roster,” Candle said. “There’s strength in staying together, there’s strength in the continuity of our team and our locker room. It’s been fun to watch those guys go compete, and does it create maybe a little extra edge? I don’t know. Maybe it does. It’s another opportunity for these guys to show our brand on a national stage.

“Every young man who goes into a college football program is searching for a way to develop consistently. We’ve had a lot of variables in college athletics over the last few years that allow players’ focus to drift away from. So we’ve done our best job here to continue to pour into these young people and to make sure they develop at a high rate.”