Early Look at BetMGM’s 2025-26 College Basketball National Championship Market

Special Contributor, Chase Kiddy — The college basketball season is underway, and the young college basketball odds market at BetMGM is already bursting with bets about which team will cut down the nets in Indianapolis next spring.

A few days into the season, it’s the Houston Cougars (+800) that are the team atop the futures table. No team has been a more consistent tournament performer in the last five years – Houston has reached five Sweet 16s, three Elite Eights, and two Final Fours. 

The Cougs even led Florida in the final minutes of last season’s championship game before… well, you know. 

This year, All-American LJ Cryer is gone, but Houston retains some backcourt continuity with Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan still in the fold. Freshman newcomer Kingston Flemings was rated as the No. 3 shooting guard in his class by On3. The top addition might be freshman big Chris Cenac Jr., who’s anchoring the front line with more than 11 boards per game in early contests. 

Flemings and Cenac are key contributors who should keep Houston in contention for another Final Four. So far at BetMGM, 9% of tickets and 13.5% of handle is behind Houston, as of Nov. 3. 

The only ticket more popular than Houston is Purdue, whose inside-out play with Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn makes them an obvious title contender. The Boilermakers have won 24 games in four straight seasons and will be a likely favorite to return to the Final Four for the second time in three years. 

Purdue was a temporary title favorite in the final weeks of the offseason, but a more-competitive-than-expected early game against Oakland seems to have prompted a small adjustment. The price is now 10-to-1, and Purdue remains the most popular ticket at BetMGM with 12.9% of tickets and 16% of handle. Both figures are market highs. 

Draft Yourself a Blue Blood

Basketball fans know the college game is often dominated at the top end by blue bloods. Year after year, there is heavy preseason action on the biggest names of the sport – even before fans and bettors really know how good each squad’s new players will be.

The 2025-26 season is no exception. At BetMGM, Kentucky is the No. 3 most popular ticket in Mark Pope’s second year in command of the Wildcats, accounting for 8.3% of tickets and nearly 10% of handle. 

Duke is also a popular option, thanks to the name brand and the freshman Boozer twins. Like Kentucky, the Blue Devils can account for a ticket share just north of 8%.

UConn is a popular ticket as well, but there is a drop-off here in early ticket count. Only 5.7% of bettors are targeting Dan Hurley to win his third title in four years. 

One thing both Kentucky and Duke have in common, beyond the obvious: They’re both located in legally regulated betting states. 

That’s a common secondary factor that helps everyday sportsbook players get a few bucks down on that favorite hometown team in the college basketball national championship odds market.

Can Florida Go Back-to-Back? Again?

Florida retains the core of its championship frontcourt from last season, including Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon. Center Micah Handlogten appears to be playing a heavier role now, but the minutes are still split with Rueben Chinyelu.

It’s the Florida backcourt that’s all new. Walter Clayton Jr. hit big shot after big shot in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Now he’s in the NBA, and Florida rebuilt through the transfer portal, adding Princeton guard Xaivian Lee and Arkansas’ Boogie Fland as starting guards.

It seems impossible to imagine that anyone could replace what Clayton gave the Gators in high leverage during last year’s tournament. He basically turned into Damian Lillard in the final minutes of multiple tournament games. 

If the Gators get enough from their backcourt imports, the front line should be able to carry them to another successful season. But with the SEC looking deep and competitive once again, and some negative regression inevitable, this Florida team isn’t one I’d pick to go back-to-back. 

No matter how easy Billy Donovan made it look back in 2006-07, it’s awfully hard to win 12 games in a row in March.

An Early Peek at the John Wooden Award Odds

Cameron Boozer is a freshman phenom in a Duke uniform, playing with the last name of another former Duke phenom. Unsurprisingly, he’s one of the early favorites for the John Wooden Award, with some big money coming in early. 

As of Nov. 3, more than half of all market handle in BetMGM’s Wooden Award odds market is on Cameron Boozer. 

BYU freshman AJ Dybansta is another early favorite to watch, as the Utah Prep alum was named an AP Preseason All-American. But no one is a more popular ticket than Purdue’s Smith, who accounts for about one out of every seven tickets at BetMGM. Kaufman-Renn, his teammate, is currently 40-to-1. 

Keep an eye on Texas Tech big JT Toppin, who could average a monster stat line this year in Lubbock. He posted 31 points, 14 rebounds, four assists, three steals, and a block in the Red Raiders’ opener against Sam Houston last week.