ESPN ranks Top 14 players with best chance to be No. 1 in 2026 NFL Draft

With 134 Division I FBS programs across the country, there are plenty of players hoping to hear their name called in the 2026 NFL Draft. However, only one player will be the first off the board next spring. On Thursday, ESPN released rankings for the players with the best odds to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

For the past three seasons, a quarterback has been the top-pick in the draft. Most recently, the No. 1 pick was Miami‘s Cam Ward — a player who was relatively an unknown only a year prior. ESPN included some similarly unexpected prospects in its rankings while also listing several high-profile players.

In the end, the players will have to earn NFL scouts’ respect on the field. With 14 total players to cover, let’s dive into ESPN’s predictions for the No. 1 pick in 2026.

LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina: 15% chance

ESPN gives LaNorris Sellers a 15% chance of being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Sellers burst onto the scene last season after sitting his freshman campaign behind South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler.

Sellers was phenomenal, tallying 2,534 passing yards and 18 touchdowns while only throwing seven interceptions. However, Sellers legs are what really make him a special prospect. When Sellers couldn’t find a receiving target, he routinely scrambled for massive gains, totaling 674 rushing yards and seven TDs last season.

Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson: 15% chance

ESPN believes Cade Klubnik is just as likely to be the No. 1 pick next year. Riley completed 63.4% of his pass attempts last season for 3,639 yards and 36 touchdowns, compared to just six interceptions. His 36 passing touchdowns were the third-most in the country and the most of any returning player.

Klubnik didn’t shy away from stiff competition, either. Klubnik logged 262 passing yards and four touchdowns in Clemson’s win over SMU in the ACC Championship. He followed up the performance with a 336-yard, three-touchdown showing against Texas in the College Football Playoff.

Drew Allar, QB, Penn State: 15% chance

From the day he stepped on campus at Penn State, Drew Allar has been considered an elite NFL prospect. With three years of experience under his belt, Allar must show NFL scouts he’s ready for the next level this year.

Allar had a career year last season, racking up 3,327 passing yards and 24 touchdowns, compared to eight interceptions. However, Allar failed to lead Penn State against its two biggest competitors for the Big Ten crown: Oregon and Ohio State. He’ll have to get over this hump in the upcoming season to be in the No. 1 pick conversation.

Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU: 15% chance

Garrett Nussmeier is the final member of ESPN’s “serious contenders” to be the No. 1 draft pick next year. Alas, the group wouldn’t have been complete without him. While Nussmeier doesn’t have the strongest arm in the country, he has the rare ability to time his passes downfield for gigantic gains.

Nussmeier’s exceptional passing skills led to him amassing 4,052 passing yards last season, along with 29 touchdowns. In contrast, Nussmeier’s willingness to look downfield can occasionally cause him trouble. He threw 12 interceptions last season and will have to be more efficient this fall.

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana: 12%

Fernando Mendoza transferred from California to Indiana this offseason. Mendoza notched 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions last season. At 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, Mendoza boasts elite size and will be a player NFL scouts intensely watch this year.

“I really liked Mendoza’s tape,” an NFC area scout told ESPN. “He’s the one to circle that could be a bigger riser, and Cignetti has a great track record with transfer QBs.”

TJ Parker, EDGE, Clemson: 10%

ESPN is giving TJ Parker the best odds of any defensive player in the country to be first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Parker was a wrecking ball last season, tearing through opposing defenses and collecting 57 tackles, 11 sacks and six forced fumbles in the process.

For his efforts, he was named an All-ACC Second-Team selection. Now, ESPN expects Parker to ramp up his defensive efforts to an even higher level and leave NFL scouts hungry for more.

Arch Manning, QB, Texas: 10%

If you asked college football fans across the country who they believe will be the No. 1 pick next year, the most popular answer would be Arch Manning. Alas, ESPN is only giving Manning a 10% chance to take home that honor.

In fairness, Manning has limited in-game experience compared to the other players in these rankings. However, when Manning was given a chance to shine last season, he didn’t let it go to waste. In two starts, Manning completed 41-of-his-60 pass attempts for 583 yards and four touchdowns while only throwing two interceptions. He also recorded 29 rushing yards and a touchdown.

John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma: 2%

John Mateer isn’t a popular name with college football casuals, but ESPN believes his draft stock could rise considerably this season. Mateer transferred from Washington State to Oklahoma this offseason, following offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle.

Mateer logged 3,139 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, compared to seven interceptions for the Cougars last season. His arm isn’t his only weapon. Mateer also recorded 826 rushing yards for 15 touchdowns in the 2024 campaign.

Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State: 2%

In the simplest of terms, Sam Leavitt is a winner, and NFL teams like to win. Despite Arizona State being picked to finish last in the Big 12 last season, Leavitt boosted the Sun Devils to a conference title and the program’s first appearance in the CFP.

Leavitt threw for 2,885 yards, 24 touchdowns and 6 interceptions last year. Alas, he often played second fiddle to Arizona State star running back Cam Skattebo. With Skattebo off to the NFL, all eyes will be on Leavitt this fall.

Peter Woods, DT, Clemson: 1%

The second defensive player on ESPN’s list is also from Clemson. Peter Woods was a standout for the Tigers last season, collecting 26 tackles, three sacks and a forced fumble.

With a 6-foot-3, 315-pound frame, Woods is an NFL prototype. Nevertheless, it’s been 31 years since a defensive lineman has been the first player taken off the board in the NFL Draft. Woods will have to piece together a monstrous 2025 campaign to be the No. 1 pick next spring.

Spencer Fano, OT, Utah: 1%

It’s not quite as rare for offensive linemen to be the first overall picks in the NFL Draft. The Kansas City Chiefs took Eric Fisher at No. 1 in 2013, and the Miami Dolphins drafted Jake Long at first overall just five years before that.

ESPN believes Spencer Fano could be next in line. Fano was a 2024 All-American (PFF First Team, AP Second Team, Walter Camp Second Team) and an All-Big 12 First-Team selection. He is entering his junior year and should be stronger than ever.

Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama: 1%

Speaking of offensive linemen, there are few better than Kadyn Proctor. Proctor is 6-foot-7, 330 pounds, and has the size that other talented offensive linemen like Fano can only dream of having.

Proctor effectively uses his size to his advantage in the run-game, bulldozing over his opponents. However, he leaves much to be desired with his inconsistent pass blocking. Perhaps if Proctor improves his pass protection this year, an NFL team will be more willing to take a risk on him in the draft.

Isaiah World, OT, Oregon: 1%

While Isaiah World is as athletic as any offensive linemen in the 2026 draft class, he hasn’t proven himself against elite competition. Of course, he’ll have a chance to fix that this fall, thanks to his decision to transfer to Oregon this offseason.

World didn’t allow a sack last season, but he drew eight penalties (five for holding, three for unsportsmanlike conduct). He must minimize his errors this season to maximize his draft stock.

Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State: 1%

Since the common draft era began in 1967, a safety hasn’t been the first overall pick. Then again, there’s a first time for everything. It wouldn’t be the first time Caleb Downs has made history.

In his debut collegiate campaign year at Alabama, Downs became the first freshman in program history to lead the team in tackles. He transferred to Ohio State for his sophomore and subsequently won the national championship. It’d be a fool’s errand to declare anything out of Downs’ reach, including being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.