NFL Network analytics expert predicts Indianapolis Colts 2024 win total

The 2024 season is exciting for many reasons when it comes to the Indianapolis Colts, but the NFL Network is projecting Indy to miss the playoffs once again.

The Colts were one of the toasts of the season in the AFC in 2023, making a surprise run in the back half of the year to salvage a .500 record during a very tough year in the conference and despite the loss of starting quarterback Anthony Richardson. Speaking of which, the rising second-year QB is the other reason for excitement after his showcase was limited in year one.

When it comes to the math, though, numbers don’t love these upstart Colts. NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Frelund got cracking to breakdown the expected win total for each NFL team and had the Colts coming in under their Vegas over/under of 8.5 wins with just 7.9 wins.

Although, Frelund admits there is a much higher ceiling, writing: “The return of Anthony Richardson, along with some great new pieces (AD Mitchell, Laiatu Latu), creates a ton of upside for this young team.”

However, where the Colts enjoyed a four-game winning streak in the middle of last season, Frelund finds that hard to imagine with a tough slate around the midway point of the season.

“The Colts’ hardest four-game stretch comes in the middle of the season (Dolphins, at Texans, at Vikings, Bills), with a trip to the Jets and a home game against the Lions immediately following,” she says.

If Indianapolis can survive or thrive during that stint, they could sneak into playoff contention down the stretch, per Frelund, who claims the end of the schedule is very manageable.

“The good news: My models have Indy favored in each of its final four games of the campaign (at Broncos, Titans, at Giants, Jaguars).”

The AFC South certainly hasn’t been the strongest division over recent years but with Houston loading up, plus Jacksonville’s recent playoff contention, it’s a league that won’t crown a mediocre squad this season.

Frelund sees just seven and nine-tenths wins for the Indianapolis Colts, not quite eight, and definitely not enough to get to the postseason in the AFC. That figure is also the fifth-lowest of the 32 NFL teams on her win total projections.