Baylor Preview

In its Big 12 home opener, ASU will face a mirror image of itself as it lines up against Baylor. The Bears’ defense is far ahead of its offense, and the latter unit hopes to address concerns raised this young 2026 season on Saturday night in Tempe. Here’s Joe Healey’s examination of Baylor.

Baylor Preview

2025 Season in Review: 5-7

Despite a 2-1 start and four wins across the team’s first six games, Baylor failed to reach bowl eligibility in 2025 as the Bears dropped five of their final six games of the season to finish with a 5-7 record.

Excluding the 2020 season greatly impacted by COVID, 2025 was just the third time that Baylor has missed the postseason since 2010 – though it was the second time in three years that the Bears didn’t make a bowl game appearance.

2026 So Far: 3-1

The 2026 campaign began with a a gut-wrenching defeat, as Baylor lost to Auburn by a score of 17-16 when the Bears failed to convert a two-point conversion attempt with nine seconds remaining in the game in a risky decision to go for the win as opposed to kicking the extra point and playing overtime. Since then, Baylor has won against Prairie View, Louisiana Tech and Colorado.

Series History: ASU leads, 2-0

The Sun Devils have claimed wins in both of their previous two matchups with Baylor, first a 34-13 victory on Sept. 8, 1990 in Tempe and most recently, a 27-24 win on Sept. 20, 2025 thanks to a game-winning field goal by Jesus Gomez.

Head Coach: Dave Aranda (seventh season with Baylor)

Baylor’s head coach since 2020, Aranda currently has a 39-38 overall record with the Bears. He guided Baylor to a 12-2 record, the Big-12 championship and a No. 5 final Associated Press poll ranking in 2021, but since then, he has posted just one season with a winning record, an 8-5 finish in 2024.

Aranda entered 2026 generally considered to be on the proverbial hot seat – perhaps more so than any other Big-12 coach – so there is a bit of added pressure for the Bears to perform in Saturday’s conference clash between ASU and Baylor.

Baylor Offense Preview

Key Returners: WR Louis Brown IV, TE Matthew Klopfenstein, RB Dawson Pendergrass, OL Kaden Sieracki, OL Koltin Sieracki

Key Departures: OL Omar Aigbedion, WR Josh Cameron, WR Ashtyn Hawkins, WR Kole Wilson, QB Sawyer Robertson, RB Bryson Washington (transfer to Auburn), TE Michael Trigg

Key Newcomers: WR Gavin Freeman (transfer from Oklahoma State), OL Asher Hale (transfer from South Alabama), OL Nate Kibble (transfer from Texas), QB D.J. Lagway (transfer from Florida), WR Jayden McGowan (transfer from Charlotte), OL Logan Moore (transfer from UAB)

This offseason, Baylor acquired a player with tremendous boom-or-bust potential in D.J. Lagway, a high five-star recruit out of high school who had endured notable consistency issues through his first few collegiate seasons. 

Lagway, an elite tier recruit out of high school as the top quarterback prospect of the 2024 class and the No. 3 in overall recruit, began at Florida before moving on to Baylor this past offseason. 

As a high school recruit, Lagway was rated higher than fellow 2024 prospects such as CJ Carr, Julian Sayin and Colin Simmons. With the Gators, Lagway made 19 starts across 24 game appearances, completing 62% of his passes for 4,179 yards with 28 touchdowns to 23 interceptions, with 237 net rushing yards and a touchdown. 

Now with Baylor, Lagway threw for 333 yards and two touchdowns, with one interception, in the team’s season-opening loss to Auburn, then missed two games with injury before returning last week to pass for 221 yards and two touchdowns, with one interception, in a win over Colorado. 

Lagway has struggled with accuracy in two games this season, as he’s completed just 49.5 percent of his 93 pass attempts. 

In Lagway’s absence, Nate Bennett stepped in and statistically was more effective than Lagway — albeit against much lesser competition — as Bennett threw for 314 yards with three passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown and two interceptions against Prairie View, and then he tossed for 253 passing yards with three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in a win over Louisiana Tech. 

At running back, Dawson Pendergrass has rushed 73 times for 287 yards with one touchdown along with five receptions for 29 yards. A fourth-year player in the Baylor program, Pendergrass rushed for 88 yards in the season opener against Auburn and 85 yards last weekend against Colorado. He missed all of last season due to injury but had three 100-yard rushing outings for Baylor across the 2023-24 seasons. 

The Baylor wide receivers group, which lost all its top performers to graduation from last year, is guided by Gavin Freeman, with a massive gap in production between Freeman and the next leading receivers in Jayden McGowan and Louis Brown IV. 

Through four games, Freeman has 35 receptions for 364 yards with two touchdowns. Freeman, who transferred to Baylor this offseason after spending the 2022-23 seasons with Oklahoma and 2024-25 at Oklahoma State, is currently tied for the national lead in total receptions and ranks 22nd in total receiving yards. 

Freeman started the 2025 season with a pair of double-digit reception totals as he caught 12 passes for 154 yards with a touchdown against Auburn and then had 10 grabs for 104 yards against Prairie View, followed by seven receptions against Louisiana Tech and six against Colorado. 

Though Freeman is tied for the national lead in receptions, his receptions total had dropped week after week so far in 2026, so it will be interesting to monitor what sort of output he contributes against ASU. 

Beyond Freeman’s 35 receptions, the next top performer is Brown, with nine catches for 185 yards and two touchdowns, while McGowan has a team-high four touchdown grabs as part of his eight catches for 193 yards. 

Brown previously played at Colorado State and San Diego State, while McGowan has also spent time at Charlotte, Boston College and Vanderbilt. 

At tight end, Horizon High School grad Matthew Klopfenstein is listed as the starter for Saturday, and he has two receptions for 12 yards so far this season. 

The Baylor offensive line figures to feature a starting lineup of Kaden Sieracki at left tackle, Nate Kibble at left guard, Koltin Sieracki at center, Asher Hale at right guard, and Logan Moore at right tackle. 

The Sieracki brothers have spent their entire college careers at Baylor, while Kibble transferred in this past offseason from Texas, Hale came in from South Alabama, and Moore transferred from UAB.

Baylor Offense Summary

Baylor’s hopes undoubtedly were that Lagway would actualize his five-star recruiting pedigree in a new location, but consistency and durability issues have greatly impacted his first month with the Bears. 

In terms of skill position production, Lagway will look Freeman’s way much more often than not, but Baylor will need above average efforts from the surrounding cast both at running back and among the other pass-catchers to enable the Bears to achieve any measure of offensive potency against Arizona State. 

Baylor Defense Preview

Key Returners: LB Travion Barnes, DB Micah Gifford, DL Kyler Jordan, LB Kyland Reed, DB Levar Thornton, Jr., DB Tyler Turner

Key Departures: DB Devyn Bobby, DB D.J. Coleman (transfer to Florida), DB Jacob Redding, LB Keaton Thomas (transfer to Ole Miss), DL Emar’rion Winston (transfer to Arizona State)

Key Newcomers: DB Colby McCalister (transfer from Kansas State), DB Daniel Cobbs (transfer from Kansas State), DB Devon Jordan (transfer from Oklahoma), JACK Garrick Ponder (transfer from Southern Miss), DL Hosea Wheeler (transfer from Indiana)

Baylor’s starting defensive line is likely to consist of either Kyler Jordan or Jordan Mack at defensive end, Kamren Washington at defensive tackle, and either Hosea Wheeler or Jamaal Whyce at nose tackle.

Wheeler has posted 10 tackles, including 1.5 for loss and 0.5 sacks; Jordan has 9 tackles, including 2.0 for loss; Whyce has totaled seven tackles; Mack has registered four tackles, including 2.0 sacks; while Washington has four tackles, including 2.0 for loss and 1.0 sack.

Jordan has played his entire career at Baylor, while Mack transferred in this past offseason from Coastal Carolina after previously playing for Division II Seton Hill University. Washington played for Texas State, Memphis, and Sam Houston before coming to Baylor, while Wheeler started five games last year for national champion Indiana and before that played for Western Kentucky. Whyce was a member of the Marshall and South Carolina programs before making his way to Baylor,

Phoenix Sandra Day O’Connor graduate Ryan Davis or Garrick Ponder figures to start at the JACK position, with Travion Barnes at middle linebacker and Kyland Reed at weak side linebacker.

Davis came to Baylor from Kansas State, Ponder previously played for Southern Miss and North Alabama, while Reed has spent his whole college career with Baylor and Barnes is in his second season with the program after having previously competed for FIU.

Ponder has posted 11 tackles including 4.0 for loss with 2.0 sacks along with one forced fumble and one fumble recovery, while Davis has nine total tackles with one sack.

Barnes leads Baylor with 28 tackles, including 2.5 for loss, so far in 2026, while Reed has 18 tackles, including 3.0 for loss, with a fumble recovery.

In the secondary, Levar Thornton, Jr. and Devon Jordan are slated to start at cornerback, with Devin Turner at strong safety, either Colby McCalister or Tyler Turner at free safety, and either Daniel Cobbs or Bo Onu at the STAR position.

McCalister has 13 tackles on the year; Onu has 12 tackles, including 4.0 for loss with 3.0 sacks; Jordan has 11 tackles, including 1.0 for loss with two interceptions; Thornton has a team-high three pass breakups, and he and Devin Turner each have 11 tackles; Cobbs has 10 tackles including 3.0 for loss with 2.0 sacks, while Tyler Turner has 10 tackles. On

Onu and Thornton have spent their entire collegiate careers with the Bears, while Cobbs and McCallister both transferred from Kansas State and Jordan came in from Oklahoma. Devin Turner is in his second year with the program after previously transferring in from Northwestern, while Tyler Turner is also in his second season with Baylor after earlier playing for Oregon.

Baylor Defense Summary

Make no mistake about it, though there has been quite a bit of personnel turnover from last season to this year, Baylor will attack the football, as the Bears currently are tied for fourth nationally in team sacks (15.0) and rank fourth in team tackles for loss (36.0), while also ranking 28^th nationally in rush defense (97.0 yards per game allowed).

ASU’s offensive line has had notable performance and injury issues through the season’s first three games, and this weekend does not appear to provide much relief as the Devils undoubtedly will be heavily tested by the Baylor defensive attack.

Baylor Special Teams Preview

Rhett Armstrong handles placekicking duties and kickoffs and has connected on 8-of-10 field goals so far this year with a long of 54 yards. 

Baylor boasts arguably the nation’s best punter in veteran Palmer Williams, who enters this game with an incredible career average of 47.0 yards on 121 punts. 

Williams, a two-time First-Team All-Big 12 selection, was also a Second-Team All-American and was named the Big-12 Special Teams Player of the Year in 2025. He continues to be a tremendous asset as he currently ranks third nationally, averaging 50.6 yards on 14 punts. 

On returns, Caden Knighton averages 26.0 yards on three kickoff returns while Jayden McGowan averages 13.2 yards on 12 punt returns.

Local Ties: OL Connor Cameron (Gilbert Campo Verde HS), JACK Ryan Davis (Phoenix Sandra Day O’Connor HS) and TE Matthew Klopfenstein (Scottsdale Horizon HS) all played high school football in Arizona. Cameron was on the ASU roster as a walk-on true freshman in 2024 but did not see game action.

Overall Summary

Though this game matches up a pair of teams with winning records and each with just one non-conference loss on the season, some less-than-thrilling play for both squads truly makes this a greatly important contest with some tangible pressure for both teams.

In this contest, Baylor likely will lean upon its attacking defense to try to stifle the Sun Devil offense, just as Kansas was able to do two weeks ago despite ASU leaving London with the victory in that game.

In multiple respects, Saturday’s game could have similarities to that international exchange between the Sun Devils and the Jayhawks, as ASU likely will again seek to claim control of the game by forcing turnovers and other inefficiencies out of the Baylor offense, while the Devils will have to find new ways to protect the quarterback and allow the offense to flow at its own pace and not have such limited offensive options as was the case against Kansas.

ASU’s defense should have several advantages over the Baylor offense, but the game could be decided by how the Sun Devils have been able to use the bye week to find new ways to create opportunities for its offense.

Final Score Prediction (via Speak of the Devils Podcast): Arizona State 27, Baylor 20