Tale of the Tape: How Wisconsin Matches Up With Iowa

MADISON, Wis. — Looking to end a three-game losing streak, Wisconsin (2-3, 0-2) hosts Iowa (3-2, 1-1) in the annual battle for the Heartland Trophy. How do the Badgers and Hawkeyes match up on paper? Badger Blitz takes a closer look…

Wisconsin Offense vs. Iowa Defense

Run Game: Advantage Iowa

Wisconsin hasn’t run the ball well against anyone. The Badgers are now down to No. 116 in the country in rushing offense, averaging 109.2 yards per game on the ground. UW has been held under 100 yards rushing in all three games against power-four opponents, including under 80 in the last two.

Iowa has held three of its five opponents to under 100 yards rushing on the ground. Only Iowa State (104) and Indiana (104) were able to break through the Hawkeye defense enough to eclipse the 100-yard mark — and they barely got there. Iowa enters Saturday ranked fourth in the country in run defense (69.4 ypg).

Linebackers Jaden Harrell (32 tackles) and Karson Sharar (29 tackles) lead the way for the Iowa defense.

Pass Game: Advantage Iowa

If Billy Edwards can play, I think this even outs the matchup. For the first time in a while, we’re not looking at an Iowa defense that’s superhuman and preys on every single mistake its opponent makes. Safety Xavier Nwankpa and Koen Entringer are guys who can wreck games, but between them, the duo has just two pass breakups. Entringer and Nwankpa will make their presence felt a lot more in the box.

As a defense, the Hawkeyes have just two interceptions, but rank No. 37 in pass defense and No. 51 in pass defense efficiency. Not that Wisconsin is in this realm, but the top two passing offenses that Iowa has faced this season, Indiana and Rutgers, threw for a combined 563 yards.

Hunter Simmons may get his second consecutive start. The Badgers protected him quite a bit against Michigan last week. Simmons threw for 177 yards and an interception on 18-of-29 passing.

X-Factor: Third Quarter

If Wisconsin’s offense is going to break through, watch what happens after halftime. Iowa hasn’t allowed a single point in the third quarter this season. In the second half alone, the Hawkeyes have surrendered just 20 points.

Iowa Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense

Run Game: Advantage Wisconsin

Wisconsin proved its run defense was for real against Michigan last week. The Badgers held the Wolverines about 70 yards under their season average, and UM also padded their stats late instead of running the clock out. UW now ranks sixth nationally in run defense (75.0 ypg).

Iowa lost some juice at tailback from last season. The team that ran for over 300 yards against Wisconsin in 2024 is no more. The Hawkeyes rank No. 47 in FBS, putting up 179 yards per game on the ground. Iowa uses three tailbacks in its rotation Jaziun Patterson, Xavier Williams, and Kamari Moulton each have 26-plus carries.

Pro Football Focus ranks Iowa as the No. 64 run offense in the country. Meanwhile, Wisconsin ranks No. 27 in run defense.

Pass Game: Advantage Iowa

Starting quarterback Mark Gronowksi may not play. If Gronowski remains out, move this to a push, maybe advantage Wisconsin. Gronowski is completing 64 percent of his passes for 636 yards and three touchdowns to two interceptions.

Gronowski or backup Hank Brown will be facing a Wisconsin secondary that ranks No. 95 in passing defense (241.6 ypg) and No. 118 in passing efficiency defense. Against power-four opponents, the Badgers have allowed an average of 305.7 yards per game through the air, along with a combined seven touchdowns with no interceptions.

Pro Football Focus ranks Wisconsin’s coverage at No. 117 overall in FBS. Meanwhile, Iowa grades out as the No. 42 ranked passing offense.

X-Factor: Pass Rush

What could even this matchup out for Wisconsin, particularly in the pass game, is their pass rush. PFF grades the Badgers at No. 33 overall. While Iowa is graded very high by PFF in pass blocking at ninth overall, Gronowski has been sacked nine times on just 106 dropbacks. The Badgers are getting to opponent quarterbacks on 7.2 percent of their dropbacks, which ranks No. 45 in the country. If the UW run defense can hold up and put Iowa in some 3rd-and-longs, it could flip this game.

Early Prediction

I liked what I saw from Wisconsin in a lot of areas in their last outing against Michigan. I’ll continue to stand on this hill that Luke Fickell has not lost this team. And for the first time in a while, the Badgers started to control the little things — they protected the quarterback, limited penalties, controlled the line of scrimmage defensively, protected the football, etc. Most importantly, they played as hard, if not harder than their opponent. They haven’t been good enough to get away with the effort level that’s been showing up the last two seasons or so.

Wisconsin just lacks talent and playmakers. The good news? They’re not playing a star-studded team this week. Also, the biggest way Iowa can defeat teams, pounding the rock in the run game, plays right into the hands of the Badgers — at least we think. And if Michigan was any indicator, UW’s front seven should hold up once again versus an imposing offensive line.

Wisconsin’s identity has to be to make games ugly and run things through the mud. Unfortunately for the Badgers, they’re facing another opponent that’s going to do that better than they can. When you lack difference makers, as UW does, they need help from the opposition. Iowa is another low-turnover (.8 tpg), low-penalty (2.3 ppg) team that won’t beat itself.

Iowa 17 Wisconsin 13