Preview: No. 23 Illinois at Wisconsin
MADISON, Wis. — The last time Illinois visited Camp Randall Stadium in 2022, they effectively ended the Paul Chryst era. In a 35-10 win over Wisconsin, the Illini defeated the Badgers in the last game Chryst would coach as his stunning termination ensued roughly 24 hours later.
GAME INFO
When: 6:30 p.m. CT
Where: Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wis.)
TV: Big Ten Network
TV Crew: Rhett Lewis, Anthony Herron, Dannie Rogers
Live Stream: Fox Sports Go
Series History: Wisconsin leads 45-38-7
Last Meeting: Wisconsin won 25-21 in 2023
Vegas Line: Illinois -7.5
NUMBERS TO KNOW
4: Illinois and Wisconsin have been unranked in the AP Poll the last four times they’ve met.
8: The Badgers have won eight of the last nine against the Illini in Madison.
12: UW has won 12 of the last 14 meetings in this series.
24: The Badgers hold a 24-17-4 edge against the Illini in Madison.
30: UW will honor 30 players in their pre-game senior day ceremony.
WHAT TO WATCH
Can Wisconsin Contain Luke Altmyer?
The Illinois quarterback ranks top 15 nationally in completion percentage (69.1), passing efficiency (162.5), and touchdown passes (21). The senior is currently the program career leader in completion percentage and needs just three wins to tie Kurt Kitner for most wins (24) in school history.
However, Altmyer has thrown all five of his interceptions in UI’s last four games. When he throws at least one pick, the Illini are 7-7 over the last three seasons. If Altmyer throws two or more? 1-4.
Bringing the Heat
Wisconsin’s defense has found new life over the last three games. Sparked by true freshmen linebackers Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano, the Badgers have racked up 14.0 sacks during the month of November. Illinois can be prone to giving up pressure. The Illini allow a sack on 7.7 percent of their dropbacks, which ranks No. 106 in FBS.
How Do the Badgers Help Carter Smith?
Redshirt freshman running back Gideon Ituka is currently questionable for Saturday after being knocked out of the game last week versus Indiana. Wisconsin has run the ball substantially better since his emergence. If Ituka can’t go, how do the Badgers take pressure off true freshman quarterback Carter Smith, who was 9-of-15 passing for 98 yards and a touchdown to one interception during his first career start against the Hoosiers?
PREDICTION
Wisconsin has turned a corner defensively during the month of November. The question we have to continuously ask week-to-week is, can the Badgers score enough points?
The Badgers are already down to a true freshman, fourth-string quarterback. Ituka could be out as well, leaving UW with perhaps one healthy tailback. There are just very few teams in the Big Ten, if any, that the Badgers can move the ball up and down the field on. Illinois isn’t great defensively, but they’re not going to be pushed over. The Illini are most vulnerable through the air, an area UW can’t exploit.
UI will score. They’ve put 24 points or more against everyone on their schedule that isn’t ranked inside the top two. Can the Badgers force enough turnovers and create enough short fields to get the 17-20 points it’s probably going to take to win this game? The Illini only turn the ball over about once per game. They’re also one of the lowest penalized teams in the country and convert third and fourth downs at a near elite rate.
Have a feeling that trying to win ugly and overly relying on their defense catches up to Wisconsin this week. Altmyer can make some big plays. He’s No. 12 in the country with five-plus 50-yard passes this season and is going up against a secondary that’s prone to giving them up.
Illinois 24 Wisconsin 7
