Tale of the Tape: How Wisconsin Matches Up With Ohio State

MADISON, Wis. — Wisconsin (2-4, 0-3) looks to end a four-game losing streak, but in order to do so, they’ll have to go through No. 1 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) on Saturday. How do the Badgers and Buckeyes match up on paper? Badger Blitz takes an early look…

Wisconsin Offense vs. Ohio State Defense

Run Game: Advantage Ohio State

The stats don’t jump off the page, but Wisconsin ran the ball pretty well against Iowa, who entered last week with the fourth-ranked run defense in the country. Dilin Jones had 69 yards on 16 carries and was seeing some of the biggest gaps of the season. Getting center Jake Renfro back was obviously big. However, as a team, the Badgers still rank No. 107 nationally in rushing yards per game and No. 118 in yards per rush.

Another big test awaits. Ohio State comes into this game ranked sixth in FBS in rushing defense, allowing just 82.0 ypg. The Buckeyes also stand ninth in yards per rush allowed (2.7 ypa). OSU’s last five opponents have all been held under 100 yards. In fact, the Buckeyes just gave up their first rushing touchdown of the season last week, and it took Illinois EVERYTHING to get that ball past the goal line.

Pass Game: Advantage Ohio State

Who knows what Wisconsin is going to do at quarterback? Hunter Simmons was a mess in his last outing against Iowa, completing 8-of-21 passes for 82 yards with three turnovers. The Badgers could go back to Danny O’Neil. Ideally, starter Billy Edwards is ready to go and perhaps provides a much-needed jolt to this unit, but that knee injury continus to linger and linger. Unless it’s Edwards under center, it probably doesn’t matter much. UW ranks No. 110 in passing offense (180.3 ypg) and No. 133 in interception percentage (5.0%). The Badgers also allow a sack on eight percent of their dropbacks, which is good for No. 107 in FBS.

Ohio State is one of the best in the country at keeping people in front. The Buckeyes only allow 5.5 yards per pass, good for sixth in the nation. OSU is also seventh in passing defense (159.6 ypg) and seventh in sack percentage (10.0%). Only one team (Illinois) has thrown for over 175 yards against this defense, and that was due to the lopsided score.

X-Factor

Ohio State has forced eight turnovers this season. They’ve turned seven of those into touchdowns. Last week against Illinois, the Buckeyes scored 21 points off three Illini giveaways. Wisconsin simply cannot give OSU a short field to play with.

Wisconsin Defense vs. Ohio State Offense

Run Game: Advantage Push

On paper, you could say Wisconsin. However, after the Iowa game, not sure how confident we should continue to feel in this front seven. The Badgers allowed north of 200 yards rushing in a game they knew was going to be played in a phone booth. UW is still No. 15 against the run (97.5 ypg), but only four teams have seen fewer rushing attempts per game than them.

Ohio State comes in at just No. 77 in rushing offense (139.0 ypg). Getting 4.3 yards per carry, the Buckeyes are back at No. 62 in FBS. OSU has also been held under 150 yards as a team by all power-four teams they’ve faced this season. Bo Jackson is the big-play running back for OSU. He’s averaging 7.0 yards per carry. He and C.J. Donaldson has split carries though with 58 apiece. James Peoples will also get action.

Again, you probably lean Wisconsin here, but with how the season is going and where the team might be at mentally, I don’t think you count your chickens. Keep in mind, Ohio State has the 10th-best run blocking grade FBS, according to Pro Football Focus.

Pass Game: Advantage Ohio State

Ohio State doesn’t pass a ton, but when they do, it’s effective. The Buckeyes are the best in the country in completion percentage (76.3%). Those completions go for an average of nine yards per game, which is top 10 nationally as well. Despite the lack of attempts, OSU is still getting nearly 240 yards per game through the air. Quarterback Julian Sayin is completing 78.4 percent of his passes for 1,479 yards and 15 touchdowns to three interceptions. He is second in the country in passing efficiency. The Buckeyes have two receivers, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, with more than 475 yards receiving and a combined 11 touchdowns.

If Iowa is even throwing on you, you know you’ve got problems. Wisconsin is now outside the top 100 in opponent completion percentage (65.3%) and opponent yards per pass (7.6). The Badgers do rank a respectable in passing yards per game (219.5), but context is key. Three of the last four opponents have jumped out to big leads.

X-Factor

Wisconsin ranks No. 99 in FBS in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades. That’s very bad news against an Ohio State receiving core that features arguably the best player in the country in Smith, who has at least five receptions in every game this season and scored seven touchdowns in six games. The Badgers did have success two years ago, playing a lot of soft zone and keeping everything in front. Against an offense that doesn’t run it particularly well and thrives on big plays, that might be the recipe for success once again — make OSU dink and dunk their way up the field with long, methodical drives and hope they get too aggressive.

Early Prediction

No. 1 Ohio State comes to Camp Randall Stadium with the nation’s longest winning streak. Sound familiar?

Yeah, that’s not happening again.

For what it’s worth, UW has had a tendency under Luke Fickell to show up in these types of matchups. However, this team might be broken. Tickets are cheap. Fans are out. Guessing Ohio State is going to overrun Camp Randall Stadium. Maybe, the Buckeyes, who are playing their third

Ohio State 42 Wisconsin 7