Tale of the Tape: How Wisconsin Matches Up With Michigan

MADISON, Wis. — Coming off the bye week, Wisconsin (2-2, 0-1) looks to get back on track in week six. That will be easier said than done as the Badgers travel to No. 20 Michigan (3-1, 1-0) for a huge road test and the start of a brutal October slate. Badger Blitz takes a look at how UW matches up with the Wolverines on paper and the key matchups to watch.

Wisconsin Offense vs. Michigan Defense

Run Game: Advantage Michigan

Michigan ranks No. 10 nationally in run defense, allowing just 77.5 yards per game on the ground. Wisconsin hasn’t been able to move the ball against virtually anyone this season. The Badgers stand No. 109 in FBS, putting up 117.8 rushing yards per game. UM has held three teams to under 80 yards rushing per season. The only two rushing scores against them came via Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer. Meanwhile, UW is coming off a 62-yard rushing effort at home against Maryland on 42 carries.

Pass Game: Advantage Michigan

Michigan has six interceptions in four games. However, the Wolverines have been susceptible to giving up yards through the air. UM is about average in passing defense, allowing 213.8 yards per game. Although, to be fair, the Wolverines have faced two of the top quarterbacks in the country already.

Assuming Danny O’Neil gets the nod at quarterback, he’s thrown three interceptions to one touchdown pass against power-four opponents. Wisconsin is No. 87 in the country in passing offense (205.8 ypg), a number that’s a little inflated as well due to how much the Badgers have been trailing big in their last two games.

X-Factor: Negative Plays

If Wisconsin can’t control the Michigan front, it will be a long day. The Badgers’ offensive line has been a mess as of late. Senior center Jake Renfro may miss a second consecutive game as well. All that youth up front will be challenged by a UM defense that ranks sixth nationally in sacks per game (3.5) and ninth in tackles for loss per game (8.0).

Wisconsin Defense vs. Michigan Offense

Run Game: Push

On paper, Wisconsin has the edge, but it’s tough to go all-in as the Badgers haven’t been tested by a physical run game just yet. Building a bigger, more physical front in the off-season, the Badgers are now first in the country in run defense (50.0 ypg).

Michigan enters Saturday ranked eighth in rushing offense (253.5 ypg). The Wolverines are doing that while ranking No. 52 in total rush attempts per outing. That puts UM at No. 1 in the country in rushing yards per attempt (7.0). Junior tailback Justice Haynes leads the Wolverines with 537 yards and six touchdowns while averaging better than eight yards per carry.

Pass Game: Advantage Michigan

Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood hasn’t put up eye-popping stats just yet, but the talent is undeniable. Underwood is completing 57 percent of his passes for 733 yards and two touchdowns to one interception. He’s also run for 169 yards and three scores.

Wisconsin’s secondary has been picked apart as of late. Maryland and Alabama combined to throw for 647 yards and six touchdowns. On the flip side, the Badgers have gotten just one pass breakup during those losses.

X-Factor: Michigan’s Balance

Head coach Luke Fickell said Michigan is much more balanced offensively than they get credit for. The Badgers are being warned about going all-out against the run, knowing the Wolverines have a mobile quarterback and can take shots down the field. However, the Badgers likely can’t afford not to commit more guys to the box and simply allow UM to chew up the clock. The Wolverines haven’t thrown the ball a ton, but they are getting 13 yards per reception.

Early Prediction

I’ll always leave open the possibility for major growth coming out of a bye week. I also don’t hate the matchup for Wisconsin. Michigan’s strength, the run game, plays right into Wisconsin’s run defense. The Badgers are also going up against a freshman quarterback, who is on a leash and may not pick apart a weak pass defense.

However, the Badgers haven’t been tested by an offense like Michigan, who is going to fully commit to that run game. UW hasn’t run the ball against anyone and it’s hard to see that start to happen at The Big House. What happens to this team if they can’t control the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball? Michigan is No. 10 nationally in takeaways and eighth in rushing defense. That means a lot of 3rd and longs for O’Neil and this UW offense. That’s a deadly equation for the Badgers.

Michigan 38 Wisconsin 3