Stat Attack - Army

Although the final score from Waco surprised nobody, what was surprising was the lack of turnovers. Baylor’s quarterbacks threw four interceptions in their first two games, and Tech’s defense had just picked off three passes in one half in Tiger Stadium. It looked like a matchup made for the ballhawks. 

Instead, Baylor QB Nate Bennett was nearly flawless, completing 21 of 24 passes for 253 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, on the way to a 36-19 win.

The good news for Tech’s secondary is that it practically gets two consecutive bye weeks, because Army only barely even acknowledges that the forward pass even exists. Instead, the Black Knights will run until they either score, punt, or dishonorably discharge the football (that means fumble).

But nobody needs a stat sheet to know a service academy is going to run the ball. What stands out is just how well Army does it:

Army’s runs succeed 55% of the time (6th best in college football) and average 6.47 yards a carry (8th best). In short yardage, when everyone knows the ball is going up the middle, the Black Knights convert 92.3% of the time (7th best). And on fourth down, Army is a perfect 100% this season, first in the country.

And worse for the Bulldogs is that the takeaway drought in Waco may well continue into this week. Although Tech’s defense still ranks in the top ten in turnovers forced per game, Army’s offense has only coughed up a fumble one time this year.

Meanwhile, Army’s defense also seems allergic to turnovers, having not forced a single turnover all season. That makes the Black Knights the only team in FBS football that has yet to force a turnover this season. And that should be a relief for a Tech offense that gives the ball away as often as the Bulldogs do:

And all those giveaways do more than just end Tech drives. They hand the other team a short field, and a 17th-worst fourth-down conversion rate (28.6%) does no favors as well. 

And the result is a Bulldog defense that keeps getting sent onto the field with its back to the wall:

So while Army’s opponents have (on average) started their drives at their own 22 yard line, Tech’s opponent’s have started at the 35.

So how does Tech actually stop this? The answer is the one thing this Tech defense does better than almost anyone: havoc.

Havoc is the share of plays where a defense does something disruptive: a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception, or a pass breakup. The Bulldogs lead the country with 11.0 tackles for loss per game, and Kolbe Fields added three plus a sack himself in Waco. 

The issue is that Army’s run game has been so successful because they’ve avoid those exact types of plays.

Something has to give in this matchup. Will it be Army’s 7th-best tackle-for-loss-avoiding offense, or Tech’s nation-leading TFL defense? Will it be Army’s 6th-best offensive stuff rate, or Tech’s 9th-best defensive stuff rate?

A tackle for loss on an Army first down turns that into second-and-12, and a team that only throws for 81 yards a game does not want to live on second-and-12. If Tech’s front can win that fight even a handful of times, it gets off the field, gets the ball back, and gets a fighting chance.

Army is going to run the ball. Tech just has to make it run backward.

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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.