Stat Attack: LSU

It’s the kind of upset every underdog dreams of – toppling their state’s Power Five juggernaut. Beating any SEC or Big Ten school would be a remarkable feat on its own. But to beat LSU, a program that’s practically woven into the cultural fabric of Louisiana, would be on another level entirely.

And yet, Louisiana Tech has come tantalizingly close to pulling off that dream in recent memory.

In 2009, the Bulldogs marched into Death Valley and stunned everyone by taking a three-point lead into halftime. LSU responded with a stronger second-half performance, but only barely held on to win the game 24-16. 

Then came 2018, another shot to take down the Tigers. After LSU stormed out to a comfortable 24-0 lead, Tech put up 21 unanswered points to pull within a field goal early in the fourth quarter. But two late touchdowns sealed the 38-21 win for the Tigers.

But now there’s a new 95 million dollar sheriff in Baton Rouge by the name of Brian Kelly. And whether LSU fans think he’s worth the money or not, he has not messed around against Group of Five opponents.

In his three seasons as head coach, Brian Kelly’s Tigers have averaged an astounding margin of victory of 41 points when facing non-Power Five schools:

In every single one of those games, the Tigers led by at least three scores at halftime and didn’t allow their opponent to score in the last 25 minutes of the game.

Only once – against Georgia State – did LSU ever trail, and that was after the Panthers scored on the opening possession. The Tigers took that personally and went on to score a touchdown on every single drive until the end of the game.

And these aren’t wins cheapened by simply taking advantage of their opponent’s mistakes. The G5 teams made all of their field goals and extra points. And in four of those five games, LSU actually committed more turnovers and was penalized more often. Brian Kelly’s Tigers simply played superior football.

That’s in contrast to how LSU fared against G5 teams under Ed Orgeron:

While Coach O brought LSU a national championship in 2019, he also brought LSU its first G5 (or BCS non-AQ) loss since 2000. Even zooming out from that loss to Troy, Ed Orgeron’s Tigers beat G5 teams by an average of 15 points less than Kelly’s squads

And if we remove the 2016 Southern Miss game (when Coach O was just two games into his interim coach role) and the 2019 games from that year of destiny, Ogeron’s average margin of victory shrinks even more: 17 points, less than half of Kelly’s 41.

Sure, that’s cherry-picking the numbers, but it helps explain why Tech’s near-upset in 2018 was even possible. That Bulldog team ended the year with a Hawaii Bowl victory, but wasn’t remotely  “beat the #6 team in the country” good. Ogeron’s squads simply overlooked their G5 opponents.

It also explains how that same Tech team was demolished by Mississippi State 45-3 just a few weeks later.

But Tech’s closest brush with the Tigers came in 2009, back when Les Miles was still wearing the headset (and occasionally tasting the turf):

Since Nick Saban left Baton Rouge to start his illustrious NFL career, no G5 team has gotten closer to beating LSU – without actually doing it – than Louisiana Tech did in that 2009 game.

So, what is it about Louisiana Tech that has allowed the Bulldogs to earn two of the top five spots on what is effectively the “Top G5 Performances Against LSU in the Past 25 Years” list?

Most likely, the answer is simply luck.

Previewing this 2025 matchup feels different than 2009 or 2018. Tech enters the game with much lower season expectations than either of the two previous near-misses. And they’re going to be facing a Brian Kelly-led LSU program that’s shown no interest in playing with its food.

It’s hard not to believe this is the year where the Tigers finally hand Tech the kind of blowout they’ve somehow avoided since the Bush administration.

But then again, if it is all about luck, maybe it’s finally time for the pendulum to swing back the other way. After all the heartbreak, close calls, and bad breaks Tech has endured in recent years, maybe they’re due. Maybe the football gods will smile down on the Bulldog sideline, if only for one Saturday night.

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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.