Stat Attack - Northwestern State

It is impossible to think about Northwestern State and not think about September 20, 2014, and the Demons’ improbable 30-27 upset of Louisiana Tech. One of only eight FCS wins over an FBS team that season, and Northwestern State’s first win over the Bulldogs since 1979. It was also, for the purposes of this post, the last time the Demons looked like a functional football team.

That 2014 NSU team finished that season 6-6, a height they have failed to reach in the 11 seasons since. But the Demons’ fall from mediocrity is only the surface. Because the way that 2014 team played tells you how they won in Ruston, and why the version coming to The Joe Saturday has almost no chance of repeating it.

The 2014 Demons did the two things underdogs have to do: they protected the football, and they finished drives. They ranked 11th in all of FCS in turnover margin at +10 on the year. And they ranked 29th nationally in red-zone offense, scoring on 85% percent of their trips inside the 20. But as we saw on Thursday, neither are still strengths in 2026.

Because even though Northwestern State led 27-14 late in the second quarter, Louisiana Christian became one of the first NAIA programs in history to beat a scholarship Division I team. Northwestern State generated more yards and more first downs than Louisiana Christian and lost anyway.

Two red-zone fumbles on back-to-back drives in the second quarter by the Demons stalled drives that should made the Northwestern State lead unreachable. But those red-zone giveaways Thursday night were not a one-night accident.

From 29th in FCS in 2014, the Demons’ red-zone scoring rate fell nearly 25 percentage points by 2025, to 60%, placing them third-worst in FCS football.

And if we look only at touchdowns, the recent picture is worse. The 2014 team that won at Tech scored touchdowns on 59% of its red-zone trips. But that fell to 36% in 2024, and in our one game sample, it appears that trend is continuing into 2026.

The ball security that carried the 2014 team has gone the same direction. The Demons finished a respectable 11th in FCS football in 2014, but after some fluctuation, the floor gave out in 2022.

In 2022, Northwestern State finished dead last in FCS in turnover margin at -18, 123rd out of 123 teams. And the program has been in turnover hell since.

Add it all up, and the Demon struggles have just continued to get worse over time:

In 2014, Northwestern State scored 32.1 points per game and allowed just about as much, 31.5. But over the years the offense scored less and the defense allowed more. By 2024, the Demons ranked as the second-worst scoring offense and the second-worst scoring defense in the FCS. And 2025 was not much better.

When a team that cannot finish drives also cannot get off the field, the games just stop being competitive. Northwestern State has only won one game across both the 2024 and 2025 seasons, and enters Saturday having lost 29 of its last 30.

The 2014 Demons beat Louisiana Tech because they finished in the red zone and protected the football, the two things they ranked among the best in FCS at doing. Last year’s Northwestern State team ranked among the worst in FCS at both, and they just showed they have yet to figure it out against an NAIA opponent.

For Northwestern State to walk out of Joe Aillet Stadium with a win the way it did eleven years ago, it would have to become a team it has not been in a decade.

---

Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.