Stat Attack - Old Dominion

Old Dominion comes to Ruston in a very different position than they thought they would be four games into their conference slate. Back in July, the Sun Belt’s coaches picked the Monarchs to finish second in the East, behind only the powerhouse that’s become James Madison. Jump to mid-October and the Monarchs have lost three of those four league games and are 2-5 on the season. 

The headliner is that ODU is only scoring 17.7 points per game, the eighth worst in college football. But points scored is the “effect” of an offense, so let’s try to find the “cause.”

Let’s actually start with something with an area the Monarch offense has actually had some success of the year: big plays through the air:

But the trouble is how rarely those “successful” snaps happen.

The first step in a successful pass play is completing a pass, and this is where the wheels have already started to fall off. Old Dominion is completing just 53% of their passes, the sixth lowest in the nation. But we’ve just started to scratch the surface.

266.3 yards per game, dead last in college football. 4.26 yards per play, dead last in college football. 14 first downs per game, dead last in college football. A 31% overall success rate, dead last in college football. And their expected points added (EPA) is also dead last in college football.

So if the “effect” is a measly 17.7 points per game scored, the “cause” seems to be just about everything.

This culminates on standard downs, which are effectively downs where the defense needs to respect both the run and the pass. These are typically the downs where the offense has the easiest time moving the football, but the Monarchs never got that memo:

That lack of success on standard downs creates second-and-longs and third-and-longs where Old Dominion is forced to throw downfield to get across the sticks. And to their credit, that pass game explosiveness figure means they are occasionally connecting. But living and dying by the desperation heave is not typically a recipe for success. As their record goes to show.

Zooming in further, most of ODU’s problems start at the line of scrimmage, as you might expect from a program that had to replace all five of their offensive linemen this offseason. Line Yards is a stat that credits the offensive line for the first few yards of every run, the part of a carry that blocking is most responsible for. And I’ll give you one guess where the Monarchs rank:

Nearly a third of ODU’s rush attempts are stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, (say it with me now) dead last in college football. And this stuff rate is also a strength of the Bulldogs, where Tech ranks just inside the top 25.

The offensive line struggles don’t just stop with the run game. Whether it’s Quinn Henicle or Ryan Huff taking snaps, the Monarch QBs have been sacked on 16.2% of their dropbacks, which is actually not dead last in college football, but instead just nearly-dead second-to-last. 

Add it all up, and opponents are getting to the Old Dominion backfield early and often:

Even when ODU strings a few first downs together, their drives tend to fizzle out. While the Tech offense crosses their opponent’s 40-yard line on 69.8% of their offensive drives, the Monarch offense only crosses that 40-yard line 45% of the time, 7th worst in college football.

And when Old Dominion does get into scoring range, the problems don’t stop:

Compounding the offensive problem is fumbles. ODU puts the ball on the ground 1.43 times per game, the most in college football. And while the interceptions get the attention for Tech, the Bulldog defense has quietly also been recovering 0.67 fumbles per game, the 37th best in the nation.

But while the offense is the reason ODU is 2-5 overall on the season, their defense is why that isn’t any worse. Outside of the game against Virginia Tech, the Monarch defense has allowed 23 or fewer points in each of their games, including a 10-3 win over App State. 

And a big part of that defensive success is limiting the big play, especially in the run game:

While the first half of the ULM game is one that all Tech fans would like to forget, this next game may be a bit more similar than we would hope. While the Bulldog defense seems well prepared for the Old Dominion offense, a Tech offense that often relies on the big play may not find as many as they would like.

This game may be a battle of attrition. Can the Bulldog defense stay focused for all four quarters and limit the big play like they did in Monroe? And can the Tech offense string together the drives they will need to take the Homecoming win?

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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.