Stat Attack: Southeastern

How does an FCS school pull off the improbable? How do you replicate what Appalachian State did to Michigan in 2007? Or what Central Arkansas pulled off against Western Kentucky in both 2009 and 2019? Or simply recreate Northwestern State’s 2014 fireworks?

That’s the question Southeastern Louisiana is trying to answer this season, especially as they’re still looking for their first-ever win over an FBS program. Southeastern’s biggest rival, Nicholls State, has accomplished the feat four times over the past quarter century, but the Lions are still waiting for that breakthrough moment.

There’s no magic formula for an FCS upset, but one principle always holds: don’t beat yourself. And that’s where Southeastern could be dangerous.

Last season, Southeastern excelled at protecting the football. Turnovers are game-killers, especially for underdogs, and the Lions minimized those mistakes all season:

But smart football doesn’t end there. Penalties can be just as costly as fumbles or interceptions, stalling drives or extending the opponent’s. And that, if anywhere, is where Southeastern truly excelled last year, ranking 11th in FCS:

And not only did the Lions avoid penalties, they especially avoided the yellow flags at crucial times, ranking third in FCS last year in penalty first downs allowed.

Even more impressive? The Lions minimized penalties and turnovers while maintaining one of the best ball-control offenses in the country. Southeastern ranked 9th nationally in time of possession in 2024, and under head coach Frank Scelfo, they’ve finished in the top 35 every season but one:

That kind of clock management limits opportunities for opponents to mount comebacks, a dangerous trait for any team looking to spring an upset over a team without a firm identity.

So for Louisiana Tech, this season opener could be trickier than it looks. Southeastern doesn’t make many mistakes, controls the tempo, and has been building toward a breakthrough. Four years ago, Tech escaped. But in that game, Southeastern had twice the penalties the Bulldogs did and three times the turnovers.

If the Lions clean that up, as they did consistently last year, they could flip the script.

Because this isn’t just another game for Southeastern. It’s a chance for the Lions to finally join the ranks of FBS-killers.

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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.