Stat Attack - UL Monroe

Tech got its first Sun Belt win the hard way. Louisiana-Lafayette led 31-19 with less than twelve minutes left in the game, and the Bulldogs still found a way to extend their win streak over the Cajuns.

This week, the numbers indicate that Tech may not need such theatrics. SP+, a power rating that measures how good a team is on a per-play basis after adjusting for opponents, ranks UL Monroe 137th out of 138 FBS teams. And the Warhawks’ defense is the biggest reason why, ranking dead last in Defensive SP+, points allowed (44.6 per game) and in yards allowed (512 per game)

That Warhawk defense is at its worst when it really should be at its best. Passing downs are the spots where a defense knows a pass is probably coming: second down with 8 or more yards to go, or third or fourth down with 5 or more. Or in other words, the downs that the defense is expected to win. But ULM’s defense lets offenses succeed on 45.2% of passing downs, last in the FBS:

For Blake Baker and/or Trey Kukuk, a second-and-long may feel more like a first-and-ten.

And trouble for the Warhawks shows up on every down, not just those pesky passing downs where their opponent is forced to be fairly one dimensional. UL Monroe allows 52.1% of third downs to be converted (3rd worst in FBS), 7.19 yards per play (3rd worst), and 9.31 yards per pass attempt (4th worst).

Even worse for the Warhawks, the ULM defense hasn’t been bailed out by ballhawks. While the Bulldogs are averaging far over an interception per game, UL Monroe only has one all season:

And Tech fans need no reminder of just how impactful an interception can be.

The same is true for other drive-altering defensive plays. We’ve talked before about Bulldogs ability to make plays in the backfield, but even sacks alone show a drastic contrast between these schools:

That poor defense leads to long fields for the Warhawk offense. And those are made even longer by a lacking special teams unit. While Tech averages 12.8 yards per punt return (39th best), ULM only averages 1.7.

All in all, the Bulldogs start six yards closer to the endzone on average:

That may not sound like a lot, but across college football, those six additional yards are worth about 0.5 points per drive according to the expected points metric. At about 11 drives per game, that’s 5.5 more points on the scoreboard from field possession alone.

Those long, daunting fields can be overcome with long explosive plays, and that’s somewhere that Tech has struggled this season. But while the Bulldogs rank in the bottom five in explosiveness allowed (not at all helped by so many big ULL plays a week ago), it does not appear to be an area where ULM is built to cash in on:

Tech’s path to a comfortable Saturday is clear. Take the ball away as they have all season, win the field position battle as they have all season, and use this game to learn how to limit the explosiveness that has plagued the Bulldog defense. 

Do all that, and Tech can avoid a third straight week of a stressful final quarter.

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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.