Three Keys to Victory: UTEP
Louisiana Tech has started off 2025 with three home wins and a loss at LSU. Can they take their winning ways outside the state of Louisiana? We’ll find out tomorrow when the Bulldogs take on the Miners of UT El Paso.
What will Tech need to do for Coach Sonny Cumbie to improve to 4-0 in his career against UTEP?
1) Miner Mistakes
So far this season, Tech has a lot going for them in the turnover department:
But it’s not just that the Bulldogs have done a fantastic job protecting the football – it’s that the defense has been incredible at forcing turnovers. Luke Olson’s defense currently ranks 1st in the FBS in defensive touchdowns (3 in 4 games), and has the team turnover margin averaging +1.75 per game (6th in FBS).
Hot take incoming: if you protect the ball on offense AND create turnovers on defense, you’re a good team!
Fortunately for Tech, UTEP is not a good team, at least in that regard. The Miners enter tomorrow’s game with a -1.00 average turnover margin (117th in FBS). QB Malachi Nelson has thrown 5 INTs through 4 games. In fact, against FBS opponents Nelson has thrown 5 INTs and only 4 TD passes.
After trailing 31-7 last week against ULM (yep, you read that right!), Nelson almost led a huge comeback… but threw two INTs after cutting the deficit down to 31-25. The Miners went on to lose by that score.
Tech will have opportunities to take the football – to win on the road you have to take advantage of those opportunities. Look for the Bulldog D to come up huge tomorrow night.
2) Ground Game
Last week, ULM ran the ball at will against UTEP’s defense. The Warhawks averaged 6.0 yards per carry on their way to racking up 250 total rushing yards!!
Tech’s first half against Southern Miss last week demonstrated what we can do with a balanced attack… and what happens when you leave big Eli Finley wide open to start the first two drives of the game.
I’m guessing that UTEP will be prepared for Eli to run that route, so if we can’t find 125 passing yards that way… let’s take what the defense gives us and DOMINATE the ground game. Let’s have the same energy from the NMSU game.
I’m not necessarily asking for 350 rushing yards here, but let’s find success by running the ball from different looks, out of different zone read packages, and with multiple players. I’d love to see Blake Baker set a new school record for rushing yards by a QB, but I’d take a couple of 100 yard performances from Wiggins, Thevenin, Givens, Burnette, or any combination of the Dogs.
If Tech can find success on the ground – which they should be able to – it’ll be a long night for Scotty Walden’s boys.
3) Pressure Creates Dogwins
I talked about how mistake-prone Malachi Nelson can be earlier in this post. As BTB Contributor Caleb Wardell pointed out earlier this week, Nelson is most likely to make mistakes when he’s pressured. He’s completing just 37% of his throws this year under pressure, with 3 INTs. Blitzing is one way to accomplish pressure – but Nelson is actually doing better against the blitz (52%, 1 INT) than he is when he gets pressured by a normal front.
To beat the Miners, Tech will need to apply pressure both in the literal sense – by getting in Nelson’s face and forcing him to make a mistake – but also in a figurative sense.
This is a UTEP team that had some expectations going into the year. They expected to take steps forward in year two under Walden and with a former #1 overall recruit in the NATION coming to town.
Fast forward to week 5, and the Miners are 1-3 heading into CUSA play. They’re on the brink of another disaster typical UTEP season here. It’s also Homecoming in the Sun Bowl, if that matters any more.
Tech has the chance to go out and show that they’re as good as we think they might be. UTEP is reeling… don’t let them get their feet under them. Come out guns blazing and put some distance up on the scoreboard… then don’t look back!
Evan is a contributor at go tech pls dont die, a weekly podcast, Twitter, and blog that covers Louisiana Tech sports in a not-so-serious way.
